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US Intelligence Shows 3 War Scenarios in Ukraine: Putin May Use Nuclear Weapons
Russian military to take "years" to recover, increasing nuclear risk, US intelligence chief says
The American intelligence estimates that it will take "years" for the Russian army to recover from the damage it has suffered in carrying out its war in Ukraine, according to the leader Avril Haines.
"Their ground forces are now so degraded that we expect it will take years for them to recover in many ways," she told a conference in Washington.
That could push Russia to become more dependent on "asymmetric means" such as cyberattacks, energy control efforts, or even nuclear weapons to project "power and influence," she said.
Haines said Russia has begun to shift its focus to the Donetsk region. The intelligence community believes Russia will fight to overtake the eastern province as close as it gets to neighboring Luhansk, but that Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to believe that time is on Moscow's side because he thinks the West will eventually get tired. supporting Ukraine.
"The consensus is that the war in Ukraine will continue for a long period of time," Haines said, acknowledging that the US assessment of the situation is "grim".
Haines said the intelligence community sees three possible scenarios that could be put in focus in the coming weeks and months.
"The conflict is more likely to remain a fierce war in which the Russians make growing gains but no progress," she said. Under this scenario, the Russian military will have secured Luhansk and most of Donetsk by the fall, as well as strengthen control of southern Ukraine.
Other scenarios are that Russia could make some progress and refocus on Kiev or Odessa; or, finally, that Ukraine could stabilize the front line and start making smaller profits, likely in Kherson or elsewhere in southern Ukraine.