"January of this year the hottest in history"/ Scientists: What are the factors that are driving temperatures beyond expectations?

Last month was the hottest January on record, the European climate monitor said on February 6. The high temperatures were recorded despite expectations that cooler conditions from the La Nina phenomenon could reduce high temperatures around the world.

The Copernicus climate change service said January was 1.75 degrees Celsius warmer than in pre-industrial times, continuing the record-breaking temperatures that were recorded in 2023 and 2024 as greenhouse gas emissions are heating the planet.

Climate scientists had expected the trend of high temperatures to stop, as the heat climate phenomenon, El Nino, peaked in January 2024 and temperatures gradually began to cool as the La Nina phase began.

But the heat has continued to approach new records, sparking debate among scientists about the factors that are pushing temperatures beyond expectations.

"This is a bit surprising... we are not seeing the cooling effect, or the temporary decrease in global temperatures that we expected to see," Julien Nicolas, a climate scientist at Copernicus, told AFP.

The effect of La Nina is expected to be small and Copernicus said that prevailing temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean suggest that "there is a slowdown or stagnation" of the effects of the cooling phenomenon.

Scientists have warned that every increase of a fraction of a degree increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, torrential rains and droughts.

Last month, Copernicus said that average global temperatures during 2023 and 2024 exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time.

According to the European assembler, this does not mean permanently exceeding the goal set in the Paris Climate Agreement of not warming temperatures by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Overall, according to Copernicus, 2025 is not expected to have temperatures like the previous two years, but scientists expect it to rank as the third hottest year on record.

This climate organization said it will monitor ocean temperatures through 2025 to see if there will be further temperature changes.

The EU monitor uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations to make climate calculations.

This monitor has been collecting climate data since 1940, but other sources of climate data – such as ice cores, tree rings and coral skeletons – allow scientists to extend their conclusions using data dating back much further.

Scientists say the current period is likely the hottest period the Earth has experienced in at least 125,000 years./REL