VOA/Kosovo analysis, expectations from the new American administration

The leaders in Kosovo, the president, the prime minister and the leaders of all the political parties in Kosovo, congratulated former American President Donald Trump on his victory in Tuesday's elections, expressing hope for the continuation and deepening of cooperation with the United States.

President Trump's first term in the White House was characterized by tense relations with the first government of Prime Minister Albin Kurti.

The White House secured an agreement for the normalization of economic relations between Kosovo and Serbia, which was signed in September 2020 in the presence of President Donald Trump.

The agreement was signed a few months after the collapse of Prime Minister Kurti's first government, which did not agree to US demands for the removal of 100 percent tariffs on Serbian goods that were imposed in November 2018 in response to Serbia's approach to citizenship. Kosovo.

The Democratic League of Kosovo, which was part of the government, withdrew from the coalition, leading to the overthrow of Mr. Kurti's government, which was followed by a new government that signed the agreement in Washington.

Prime Minister Albin Kurti at that time accused the American envoy Richard Grenell of "being involved in advancing the vote that brought down his government".

Mr. Grenell, a close associate of Mr. Trump has been rumored as a candidate for the post of Secretary of State in the next administration of President Trump.

Analyst Agon Maliqi says for the Voice of America that Mr. Grenell is expected to commit to the region again.

"How this will affect then remains to be seen from the constellation of the new government in Kosovo, from the way the European Union behaves and at this moment it is a bit difficult to predict", he said.

Mr. Maliqi says that although the past has little influence on politics, the approach of the government of Kosovo to the American administration remains worrying.

"During (the) Biden administration, even though we had deep disagreements, very clear dissatisfaction expressed by the Biden administration, there was still a kind of understanding about the actions of the Kosovo government and a kind of tolerance for this kind of approach, which I suspect can continue with an American administration which, not only in relation to Kosovo but with almost every ally of the US, has a transnational approach in the sense that 'we will be with you as long as you are with us', he said.

An issue that received a lot of attention during President Trump's first term was the idea of ​​exchanging territories between Kosovo and Serbia as a peaceful solution between the two countries.

 

Discussions began in the summer of 2018. President Trump's National Security Advisor John Bolton, who left the post, said on August 24 of that year that "the United States will not engage in the idea of ​​exchanging territories between Kosovo and Serbia, but if the parties come to an agreement, they will not become an obstacle"

 

A day later, the president of Kosovo, Hashim Thaçi, and that of Serbia, Aleksandër Vucic, in a debate during the Alpbach forum in Austria, asked for international support for any agreement that could be reached in the talks mediated by the European Union, even if it meant change of borders.

This idea was met with harsh reactions in Kosovo and Serbia, as well as being opposed by some of the countries of the European Union, among which Germany was the loudest.

The White House envoy for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, Ambassador Richard Grenell, denied several times that the United States was part of the discussions on the exchange of territories.

This week, this issue was raised during a hearing in the European Parliament for the confirmation of the candidate for the position of Commissioner for the enlargement of the European Union, Marta Kos, who said that she is against the tendencies to exchange territories between Kosovo and Serbia.

"As for the exchange of territory, no, no, it is out of the question. The European Commission and I, if I am confirmed, will not follow these trends", she said when asked by Slovenian MP Vladimir Prebilič.

Analyst Agon Maliqi told the Voice of America that he finds it difficult to bring back such an idea, especially after it failed once. But according to him, such an opportunity also depends on the success of the current dialogue process led by the European Union.

"The longer the Brussels process is prolonged without a solution and the more it drags on, anything is possible. Even last time when this topic was opened it was a surprise.

The more the Brussels dialogue fails to resolve the dispute in the framework of the Ohrid agreement, the more opportunities for other alternative solutions open up because both Kosovo and Serbia are being held hostage and their integration path, especially in Kosovo, Euro-Atlantic structures it's nowhere," he said.

However, according to Mr. Maliqi, Kosovo, which has been left under sanctions by the European Union and with the change of administration in Washington, seems to find itself in a new reality.

"What needs to be said anyway is that Serbia at the moment feels in a slightly better position, which will not necessarily be true, but the perception and feeling in Belgrade is that now they will face less pressure around the issue of dialogue or that they can have more influence in dictating the parameters of the dialogue and this is something that Prishtina should take into account", said analyst Agon Maliqi./VOA