
EWB analysis: Is there a possibility that Ukraine will join the EU before the Western Balkans?
Since Ukraine and Moldova began their formal EU integration process in 2022, the possibility of new candidates "skipping the queue" has created concern in the Western Balkans. Although the push for their EU membership was the result of an outbreak of war in Ukraine, the relatively rapid pace at which these countries have moved so far has not always been warmly received by the long-time Balkan candidates.
However, this "race" is largely irrelevant for several reasons, say EWB interlocutors . First, the prospects for speeding up the whole process, especially Ukraine's candidacy, are slim.
Second, Ukraine and Moldova have only passed the easy part so far, and the real work begins now.
Finally, a stronger momentum for EU enlargement, despite encouraging signals, is still not guaranteed.
Ukraine and Moldova applied for membership of the European Union a few weeks after the start of the Russian occupation in 2022 and received candidate status in June of the same year. The European Council officially decided to open their accession talks in December 2023, at the same time granting a candidate status to Georgia.
The relative speed with which the new Eastern European candidates advanced was quickly contrasted with the membership status of the Western Balkan candidates.
North Macedonia and Albania opened membership negotiations only in July 2022 after years of delay. Bosnia and Herzegovina received candidate country status six months after Ukraine and Moldova, and the opening of its membership negotiations is still pending, while Kosovo is not recognized as a candidate. Montenegro and Serbia have not taken a formal step forward in years.
Narratives of "unfair treatment" linger in the Western Balkans
In September 2023, the Financial Times reported that " some Western Balkan leaders are becoming increasingly frustrated that Ukraine is overtaking their countries in the EU accession process". Later that year, POLITICO published a statement by the Serbian Minister for European Integration, in which he assessed that the EU did not react as quickly with the Western Balkans as it did with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.
There have also been harsher assessments of the situation, with some media outlets in the Western Balkans reporting that it was unfair that countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina were left in the waiting room, while countries in Eastern Europe whose territorial integrity has been compromised are advancing. .
Çuditërisht, zyrtarët rusë dhe mediat shtetërore i shfrytëzuan gjithashtu këto ndarje, me ministrin e Jashtëm Sergey Lavrov që komentoi shtatorin e kaluar se BE-ja "po i pranonte nazistët jashtë radhës, ndërsa Serbia, Turqia dhe të tjerët do të prisnin".
Komisioneri i Zgjerimit Olivér Várhelyi tha se "nuk është ide e mirë të përpiqesh të krijosh një garë midis Ballkanit Perëndimor dhe Ukrainës" dhe se "kushtet janë kushtet dhe ato duhet të zbatohen në mënyrë të barabartë për çdo kandidat të vetëm”.
Megjithatë, jo të gjithë ende besojnë se kjo duhet të jetë rasti. Sipas Raportit të Sigurisë së Munihut të publikuar së fundmi, 75% e ukrainasve besojnë se BE-ja duhet të përshpejtojë aplikimin e Ukrainës për anëtarësim në BE "edhe nëse kjo do të thotë të ulë standardet e saj për anëtarësim". Raporti, megjithatë, vë në dukje mosmarrëveshjet brenda Bashkimit Evropian për këtë çështje dhe është i kujdesshëm në lidhje me këtë perspektivë.
Ndjekja e shpejtë e procesit nuk ka shumë të ngjarë
Bashkëbiseduesit e portalit tonë janë dakord që pritshmëritë duhet të menaxhohen. Natasha Wunsch, Profesore e Studimeve Evropiane në Universitetin e Friburgut, thotë se është e rëndësishme të mbahet mend se fillimi i pranimit ishte kryesisht një gjest simbolik solidariteti ndaj Ukrainës. Negociatat eventuale të zgjerimit, shton ajo, ka të ngjarë të zgjasin të paktën një dekadë dhe nuk mund të fillojnë seriozisht përpara se të zgjidhet konfrontimi ushtarak me Rusinë.
“Pavarësisht frikës midis vendeve të Ballkanit Perëndimor se Kievi mund të ‘kapërcejë radhën’, disa shtete anëtare kanë shprehur rezerva të forta për një rezultat të tillë dhe, nëse ka ndonjë gjë, një zgjerim i grupuar i Ballkanit Perëndimor dhe Ukrainës, ndoshta së bashku me Moldavinë dhe Gjeorgjinë, mund të të parashikohet në një horizont 10-15-vjeçar”, thotë Wunsch, e cila është gjithashtu anëtare e Grupit Këshillues për Politikat e Ballkanit në Evropë (BiEPAG).
Teona Lavrelashvili, Analiste e Politikave në Qendrën e Politikave Evropiane në Bruksel, gjithashtu dyshon se Ukraina do të anëtarësohet në Bashkimin Evropian më herët se disa nga vendet e Ballkanit Perëndimor për disa arsye, duke përfshirë faktin se vendi është i përfshirë në një luftë.
“Për më tepër, pranimi i Ukrainës, me popullsinë e saj prej 44 milionë banorësh, do të ndikonte në mënyrë të pashmangshme në dinamikën institucionale dhe buxhetore të Bashkimit. Kjo vë në pikëpyetje kohën dhe natyrën e reformave të nevojshme, si ato në Politikën e Përbashkët Bujqësore dhe Fondet e Kohezionit. Drejtimi dhe ritmi i këtyre reformave janë të pasigurta dhe do të varen në masë të madhe nga lidershipi i ardhshëm i Unionit”, thotë ajo.
Adnan Ćerimagić, analist i lartë në Iniciativën Evropiane të Stabilitetit, thekson se, vende si Estonia, Republika Çeke dhe Kroacia kaluan nëpër të njëjtat faza po aq shpejt.
He says the two main tests for the EU now will be what happens next.
"First, is there a clear political commitment to bring Ukraine and Moldova to the next target? Will this be a realistic goal to finalize the talks and become full members of the EU or at least membership of its single market and four freedoms?
Or will it be an empty goal to open 33 chapters that may last eight years, as was the case of Montenegro, or more than a decade, as will be the case of Serbia?" , asks Ćerimagić.
The second big test will be whether the EU will be willing to repeat its approach to Ukraine and Moldova in the Western Balkans.
" What we have seen so far is less than encouraging. The European Commission's approach to Bosnia and Herzegovina is in stark contrast to what we have seen with Ukraine and Moldova.
Obtain the condition of approval of the National Program for the Adoption of the Acquis. In the case of Ukraine, unlike Bosnia, the Commission has not made it a condition for the start of membership talks. This is because even for non-federalized countries, this document is a big and difficult task", Ćermigaić emphasizes.
The Western Balkans are also responsible for the pace of their accession process
However, some observers estimate that, in addition to the different approach that the EU has towards Ukraine and Moldova, the countries of the Western Balkans are also responsible for the slow pace of their accession process.
According to Kurt Bassuener, senior fellow at the Democratization Policy Council, the current difference between the Eastern European and Western Balkan candidates is the actual political will to implement the necessary reforms.
"The relative lack of shipments for most of the Western Balkans speaks volumes ," he says.
He also appreciates that the popular electorate for the EU as a community of values spurred positive changes in Ukraine, despite its still evident challenges. On the other hand, in the Western Balkans, the EU has never put itself in the foreground as a community of values, but more in a transactional way.
It seems that, rather than worrying about who will enter the European Union first, all candidates should make further efforts to convince the EU that enlargement should remain at the top of its agenda in 2024 and beyond. further.
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