Montenegro is on the fastest path to EU membership, Serbia is lagging behind

Montenegro and Serbia continue to be considered as leading countries in the process of joining the European Union, but, under the existing circumstances, only Montenegro can hope for full membership by the end of this decade.

This country has received a positive Standards Assessment Report from the EU, while Serbia continues not to join the bloc's sanctions against Russia, due to the invasion of Ukraine.

From the perspective of Brussels, this makes Montenegro seen as the first future member of the EU.

Montenegro opened negotiations for membership in June 2012, while Serbia in January 2014.

The stages where these two countries are now in the accession process are fundamentally different.

So far, Serbia has opened 22 out of a total of 35 chapters of negotiations for membership in the European Union. Of those 22, it has temporarily closed 2.

Negotiations between Belgrade and Brussels have been practically frozen for three years now, due to the non-imposition of sanctions against Russia.

Montenegro, on the other hand, has opened all the negotiation chapters and temporarily closed 3. After several years of stagnation, this country restarted the negotiations in June of this year and is now working towards their closure.

Separation of Montenegro from Serbia

Serbia and Montenegro, unofficially, have been treated in the group, respectively as the two most advanced countries in the process of membership negotiations.

With the narrative of Brussels, they are called "leaders" in the accession process.

But, after Montenegro restarted the negotiation process in June, while Serbia shows no signs that it will impose sanctions against Russia and thus "melt" the negotiations, the so-called "separation" between them happens naturally. And, currently, there is only one leader towards EU membership and that is Montenegro.

Jana Juzova, from the Institute for European Politics - EUROPEUM, says that Serbia still has a long way to go, to show that it is really trying to make democratic reforms.

"Due to the path that Serbia is taking in terms of democratic performance and relations with Russia, I think that, currently, there is no argument for the 'unification' of Montenegro and Serbia", says Juzova.

"If more pro-democratic and pro-Western governing elites would appear in Serbia and the country would speed up the pace of reforms, then the situation could change and maybe we would have two leaders again," she adds.

In the "race" of candidates for European integration, Serbia, according to her, has turned into a "problem child" in the Western Balkans.

Montenegro in the EU in 2028 – a possible and optimistic option

The experts of the European Commission do not rule out the possibility that Montenegro, with political will, will close all the chapters of the negotiations during the next two years, in order to pave the way for full membership in the EU by the end of this decade.

In the Enlargement Directorate of the European Commission, there is already a prepared calendar plan, according to which Montenegro could complete the entire process of negotiations for membership by 2026.

According to this plan, Montenegro can close four negotiation chapters this year, six chapters are scheduled to close during 2025 and all remaining chapters during 2026.

"The estimated time for the temporary closure of chapters reflects the European Commission's assessment of the complexity of reaching that stage. The actual deadlines will depend on the results provided by Montenegro and the views of the member states and may vary from three to six months, except for those chapters that are scheduled to be closed at the end of 2026, which is the political deadline for the closing of the negotiations", it is stated in the document of the European Commission that Radio Free Europe has seen.

According to this plan and under the most ideal circumstances, Montenegro could become a member of the EU in 2028.

The hypothetical period between 2026 and 2028 – that is, between the end of the negotiations and full membership – is necessary, so that all member states of the European Union – 27 of them – ratify the membership agreement in their national parliaments.

"Montenegro has the best chances if it maintains the newly gained momentum and shows convincing results in the implementation of the rule of law and democratic reforms", says Juzova.

The EC is more careful with the dates, but does not rule out the year 2028

Gert Jan Kopman, director general at the Directorate for Neighborhood and Enlargement Negotiations, believes that Montenegro's EU membership by 2028 is "real", if the official Podgorica commits seriously.

"In terms of motivation for the country itself, [setting 2028 as a deadline for membership] is very helpful. It's a transformative thing because, every week, there will be cabinet meetings where progress will be reviewed," Kopman said at a panel in Brussels dedicated to enlargement.

In official responses, European Commission officials are more cautious when it comes to dates.

In a written statement to Radio Free Europe, the press service of the European Commission said that the president of this institution, Ursula von der Leyen, has already confirmed that enlargement will be a priority in her next mandate and that the Commission is working to to accelerate the work and to accelerate the gradual integration of the Western Balkans.

"There are no predetermined deadlines. It is clear that membership remains a merit-based process, fully dependent on each partner's objective progress," the European Commission said in a statement. /REL/