What happens now with Marine Le Pen and her far-right party?

French far-right politician Marine Le Pen has been found guilty of embezzling European Parliament funds over a 12-year period.

In a ruling that has shaken French and European politics, a court in Paris has said she cannot run for any public political position - meaning she appears to be out of the running for the presidential election, which is due to be held in the spring of 2027 at the latest.

She left the court hearing without comment. Although she can appeal the decision – each step could take years – it is likely that this will be the end of her political career.

Le Pen, who ran against incumbent President Emmanuel Macron in 2017 and 2022, was considered the favorite to become France's first female president.

In 2022, she won 41.5 percent of the vote in the second round, marking the best result for a far-right candidate in France's presidential race.

With Macron barred from running for a third term, Le Pen was considered the most popular figure for the upcoming election, and early polls signaled that she would defeat other candidates from the left and right.

Le Pen rose to the top of the National Front in 2011 and rebranded the party as the National Rally, as well as attempting to whitewash the party by distancing it and herself from some of her father Jean-Marie Le Pen's racist and anti-Semitic statements in the past.

She continues to have a very critical approach to immigration and Islam and wants to remove France from NATO's integrated military command.

However, she has backed away from previous statements to remove the country from the European Union and the Eurozone.

Her party was granted a much-publicized loan from a Russian bank in 2014, and although she has been a supporter of Moscow in the past and has criticized EU sanctions against the Kremlin, she has supported France in its decision to accept Ukrainian refugees.

Following the March 31 decision, the Kremlin said it regretted the "violation of democratic norms."

European officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, had hoped she would move forward with taking on some task, perhaps following in the footsteps of Italy's right-wing Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, who is described in Brussels as competent and cooperative.

However, they have spoken with caution, saying that the National Rally has always positioned itself on the far right and that the party is a main founder of the Patriots of Europe party, along with the ruling Hungarian party, Fidesz, whose leader, Viktor Orban, has immediately expressed support for Le Pen.

What is unknown now is what will happen to her party.

Eight former members of the European Parliament, members of the National Rally, have been convicted along with Le Pen of using millions of euros worth of European Parliament funds to pay staff in France between 2004 and 2016, raising questions about whether the movement can survive the blow.

Jordan Bardella – who was named the official leader of the National Rally in 2021 and is considered Le Pen's successor – continues to remain untainted by the scandal, at least directly.

But can Bardella have the same pulling power as Le Pen? At just 29 years old, he is considered too young and inexperienced.

Although the National Rally managed to come first in the European Parliament elections in June last year, the party's failure to repeat that success in the parliamentary elections held that same summer raised questions about its sustainability.

It remains to be seen how the electorate will respond to the decision.

Many politicians have been shocked by criticism made by US Vice President JD Vance earlier this year for annulling the result of the first round of Romania's presidential election, following suspicions of Russian interference on behalf of independent candidate Calin Georgescu, who had surprised everyone by coming out on top.

"We can expect similar backlash this time, as many members of the populist right will call this a 'legal affair' against politicians who are not considered mainstream, and Marine Le Pen has just become their 'celebrity cause', which could push them to gain even more popularity."/ REL