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Productivity losses could reduce GDP by 1.3% as a result of extreme heat

Politiko 2025-07-02 13:21:04

Productivity losses could reduce GDP by 1.3% as a result of extreme heat

Extreme heat that is becoming common over longer periods and more extreme temperatures could cost countries around the globe significant losses.

Albania is estimated to have a 1.3 percent decrease in Gross Domestic Product as a result of the heat wave, which, in addition to its impacts on various sectors of the economy, also affects employee productivity.

A recent World Bank report titled "Uninhabitable: How Cities in Europe and Central Asia Can Survive and Thrive in a Hotter Future" focuses precisely on the economic losses that could result from rising temperatures.

"Economic losses from extreme heat could reach up to 2.5 percent of GDP by mid-century in some parts of the region. Heat undermines both current productivity and long-term human capital."

When it gets too hot, workers slow down or stop working altogether. Heat reduces physical and cognitive performance. Machines fail, power systems are overloaded, and supply chains are disrupted.

Productivity losses alone could reduce GDP by up to 1.3 percent in countries like Albania, North Macedonia, and Tajikistan, with urban centers being hit hardest, according to a recent report. The hardest-hit countries, Cyprus, Greece, Bulgaria, and Turkey, could experience GDP losses of 2 to 6 percent in the coming decades.

The report estimates that heat waves have become more frequent and longer. According to it, accelerated warming has led to a noticeable increase in heat waves across the region's cities. An analysis for this study looked at climate reanalysis data along with daily measurements from 20 local weather stations across the region.

In any case, the measurements showed an increasing trend in the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves. “Compared to the period 1970–1979, in the most recent decade (2015–2024) there have been, on average, 2.4 more heat wave events per year (5.8 versus 3.4) and 30 additional heat wave days per year (51 versus 21).

Also, the longest heat wave per year now lasts an average of nine days longer (16 versus seven days). These trends are particularly pronounced in Southeastern Europe, the Western Balkans, and Turkey. For example, Bulgaria, Moldova, and Romania each experienced 40 more days of heat waves per year in 2015–2024 compared to 1970–1979. In Montenegro, Albania, and Turkey, the longest heat wave now lasts an average of 15 days,” the report says./Monitor

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