Analysis: Peace between Russia and Ukraine, further away than it seemed

Even before Ukrainian and Russian negotiators met in the conference room of Istanbul’s famous Ciragan Palace on June 2, there was little optimism about major progress toward peace. After just about an hour of talks, it was clear that even this expectation was overly optimistic. The next day, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev confirmed this.

"The Istanbul talks are not about reaching a compromise peace on someone else's illusory terms, but about ensuring our swift victory and the complete destruction of the neo-Nazi regime ," Medvedev, who is now a senior official on Russia's Security Council, wrote on Telegram.

The second round of negotiations to end Europe's biggest land war since World War II ended with fewer results than the first round. The initial talks last month marked the first face-off between Kiev and Moscow since the first weeks after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Ukraine sent a group of high-level officials; Russia sent a delegation led by former Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky. The fact that they agreed to exchange up to 1,000 prisoners of war was seen as a success.

Ahead of the June 2 talks, the two sides were expected to exchange their specific proposals for a framework for a peace agreement. Ukraine, which said it had conveyed its plan to the Kremlin in advance, demanded, among other things, a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, the exchange of all prisoners of war, and the return of Ukrainian children who, according to Kiev, have been abducted by Russia.

As before, Ukraine sent its Defense Minister, Rustem Umerov, to the talks. Russia refused to share its plan in advance - which was seen as a bad sign. The leadership of the Russian delegation, once again by Medinsky, was also seen as a dark omen.

"It would be a mistake to expect any immediate progress in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul ," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on June 3.

When the Russian document was finally published by the state-run TASS news agency, it confirmed observers' worst fears about Moscow's conditions for peace. The Russian proposal calls, among other things, for international recognition of Crimea - the Ukrainian peninsula that Moscow annexed in 2014 - as well as four Ukrainian regions that are partially occupied by Russian forces.

Russian and Ukrainian positions in peace talks

Russia and Ukraine have announced their plans for a ceasefire agreement and peace talks, but their positions on key issues remain far apart.

Ceasefire: Ukraine is demanding a complete and unconditional ceasefire on land, sea and air for at least 30 days - with the possibility of extension - as a precondition for peace talks. Russia is proposing a ceasefire only after its conditions are met, such as the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from territories it claims to have annexed, or a ban on their movement except in the event of their departure from those territories.

Territorial concessions: Ukraine wants territorial issues to be discussed only after a full ceasefire and does not accept international recognition of Russia's territorial gains since 2014. Russia demands international recognition of its control over Crimea and the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions, as well as the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from these areas.

Ukrainian military forces: Ukraine does not accept limits on the size or armament of its army. Russia demands limits on the size of the Ukrainian army, the quantity and types of weapons, and the disbandment of “nationalist” units.

Security guarantees and neutrality: Ukraine should receive strong security guarantees and not be forced to be neutral; it could seek membership in the EU and NATO. Russia wants Ukraine to be neutral and not join any alliance or coalition.

The text even refers to the regions collectively as “Novorossiya” — or “New Russia” — a historical term used during the Russian Empire to describe lands that are now Ukrainian. The Russian text calls on Ukraine to withdraw its troops from territories claimed by Russia within 30 days of the ceasefire.

He also demands that Ukraine renounce NATO membership, demobilize its armed forces, and halve foreign military aid.

"Talking about the meaning of this memorandum would only matter if we believed that the Russian delegation, as a whole, has some sincere intention regarding these negotiations... that it too will end this war," Kirill Martynov, editor-in-chief of the Russian exile newspaper Novaya Gazeta Europa, tells Radio Free Europe's Current Time channel.

"But everything we have seen so far is related to the fact that the Russian side is convinced that it is winning the war, that it just needs to wait a little longer...", according to him.

On the battlefield, Russia is ramping up its operations, with a full-scale offensive expected soon. Russia is in the lead, with more soldiers and more weapons at its disposal, and its forces are advancing in several places. Ukrainian officials have warned that the northeastern region of Sumy could be a priority in any future offensive.

Kiev also sent a clear message on the eve of the talks, launching a surprise drone attack on several Russian air bases, where dozens of strategic bombers were stationed, used for missile strikes on Ukraine. Although Ukraine has been praised for its creativity, especially in drone warfare, it continues to struggle to provide enough soldiers to the front lines.

The White House Wild Card

Another unpredictable factor is the White House. President Donald Trump has expressed impatience with the pace of negotiations and has threatened to withdraw the United States from the process altogether. But Trump and his advisers have also expressed disappointment with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is trying to normalize relations with the United States after a decade of friction.

After a phone call with Putin this week, Trump said he warned him that Russia would retaliate after Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russian territory. Trump's Republican allies in the Senate, with Democratic support, are pushing legislation that would impose major new sanctions on Moscow.

US officials have said that this initiative is being developed in tacit coordination with the White House, although Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and Democrat Richard Blumenthal openly expressed their positions during a tour of Europe - which included a stop in Ukraine - last week.

"What I learned on this trip was that he is preparing for more war," Graham said, referring to Putin, in an interview with the Associated Press news agency.

Blumenthal described the sanctions proposed in the legislation as "devastating" and said they would put Russia's economy "on a trade island."

"It is a critical moment for Putin and for the world, because Russia is launching a new offensive," he said./REL