Graph from 1934, how Albania is being "digested", with negative natural supplements for the first time in history

The beginning of the transition found Albania at the best demographic moment in its history.

In 1991, there were 82,000 births and 17.7,000 deaths in the country. The natural increase of the population (the difference between births and deaths in a year) in the year in question was almost 64 thousand people. The trend had been steadily increasing since the 1960s.

After 1991, the natural increase of the population began to shrink rapidly. The main reason was emigration, which gradually shrunk the population, combined with lifestyle changes, such as marriages at a later age, having fewer children, or even increasing divorces.

International institutions estimate that about 40% of the country's population currently lives outside Albania, mainly in Italy, Greece, other European countries, USA, etc. After the fading of the new first cycle of emigration in the early 1990s, the trend was revived again after 2016, ascertained by the increase in the number of asylum applications. In the second wave of emigration, mainly young people are leaving, but also families.

According to INSTAT, in 1990 there were about 29 thousand marriages, while in 2019, their number was about 22 thousand. In the same period, divorces increased from 2600 to almost 6000. The number of divorces per 100 marriages reached a record of 26.1 in 2019, with one-fifth of couples separating (in 2020 both marriages and divorces fell, but behavior was not normal due to limitations affected by the pandemic).

The decline in the number of births year after year has worsened the quality of generational replacement. The Synthetic Fertility Index (ISF), which shows the average number of children a woman of childbearing age is expected to give birth to, marks 1.34 children by 2020, up from 1.36 in 2019, one of the lowest rates in Europe. . In 2001, according to INSTAT, this indicator was 2.1, while in the 1970s it was over 5.

As a result of these developments, the median age of the population (separating the younger half from the older one) increased to 37.6 years in 2021, from 32.6 years in 2011, while before the 1990s it was about 27 years. However, even at these levels, Albania continues to remain a young population (median in Europe is over 40 years old).

Covid delivered the final blow, for the first time in history the natural increase was negative in 2021

Population aging was bringing about a gradual increase in deaths in the country as births were shrinking, narrowing the natural increase of the population, which was gradually moving towards zero.

Covid-19 only accelerated this trend. After the outbreak of the pandemic in March 2020, the consequences were severe on the health of the population and mortality increased rapidly.

Për gjithë vitin 2021, në vend u shënuan gjithsej rreth 30.6 mijë (30,580) humbje jete, duke shënuar nivelin më të lartë rekord të arritur ndonjëherë në historinë e vendit. Ky është viti i dytë radhazi, kur fatalitetet në vend po rezultojnë të larta. Në vitin e parë të pandemisë, në 2020-n u regjistruan në total 27.6 mijë fatalitete, nga 21.8 mijë që ishte mesatarja e periudhës 2016-2019.

Në krahasim me mesataren e 2016-2019, kur ishte një periudhë normale, vdekjet në vitin 2021 janë rritur me 40%. Edhe në 2020-n, vdekshmëria shtesë në raport me mesataren 2016-2019 u rrit me rreth 26%.

Në të kundërt, pandemia ndikoi negativisht në planifikimet familjare dhe rritjen e aborteve spontane (të ndikuara nga pasojat e pandemisë në shëndetit e femrave shtatzënë), duke sjellë rënie të lindshmërisë.

In 2020 there were only 470 births more than deaths, while in 2021, for the first time in history almost 3.3 thousand deaths more than births were recorded.

According to the latest INSTAT data, the resident population of Albania at the beginning of 2021 was about 2.83 million people, but it will be the next census, which will show the real numbers of people who have remained in Albania. / Monitor