More war, fewer rewards, what does this mean for the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

More than 40 months after its launch, Russia's war against Ukraine continues with intensity.

Moscow is making progress elsewhere, supported by thousands of volunteers, who are lured by high salaries and other lucrative benefits.

In some areas, bonuses for new recruits exceed a year's salary.

This amount has changed many household economies and increased support for the conflict.

Although casualties are at levels unseen since World War II, they have not stopped recruitment.

According to a new estimate, Russia will have over 1 million killed or wounded by the summer. But that situation is changing.

In recent weeks, at least five regions in Russia have reduced one-time recruitment bonuses for new volunteers.

On June 5, the Volga region of Bashkortostan became the latest to halve pay for new recruits.

Experts explain that this situation is partly related to budgetary constraints, as regional governments are facing financial difficulties in covering these expenses.

"I believe that, on the one hand, this is related to the tense state of the regional budget," an economist from Bashkortostan tells Radio Free Europe.

"On the other hand, this could be an indication that the need to withdraw contractual soldiers is no longer so urgent," adds the expert, who asked to remain anonymous to avoid prosecution by the authorities.

Reduction of rewards

For most of the war, Russian forces have used primarily direct infantry attacks to defeat Ukrainian positions – which has caused an extremely high number of casualties.

Fearing the public backlash, the Kremlin has avoided declaring general mobilization.

Instead, the authorities have used a combination of forces: private mercenary companies like Wagner have conducted independent recruitment, or prisoners have been taken out and forced to register, promising them amnesty after completing their service.

Since 2023, the Kremlin has also set recruitment quotas for regions, encouraging local governments to organize their own campaigns and offer rewards.

According to Janis Kluges, who tracks Russia's war spending at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, these bonuses, along with money from the Defense Ministry, amount to up to $24 million a day across the country.

In early 2025, Kluge estimated that between 1,000 and 1,500 men were signing up each day to fight.

The average bonus in the 37 regions he monitored was 1.4 million rubles, or about $17,700 – much higher than the average annual salary in most regions.

Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia was recruiting around 60,000 men per month.

In Bashkortostan, the regional government has gradually increased recruitment bonuses: from 205,000 rubles in the summer of 2022, to 505,000 rubles two years later, and then, in early 2025, tripled them to 1.6 million rubles (about $20,190).

Now, according to a decree dated June 5, signed by the regional head, Radiy Kharibov, this amount has been reduced to 1 million rubles (about $12,620).

The regional capital, Ufa, which has its own recruitment bonus, has also reduced the amount it offers for recruitment.

Bashkortostan is one of the regions with the highest number of soldiers killed in Ukraine, according to data collected by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Tatar-Bashkir Service, the BBC in Russian, and independent media outlets such as Mediazona.

Other regions that have reduced recruitment bonuses include: Yamal-Nenets and Nizhny Novgorod.

In Samara, the pay for new soldiers used to be the highest in the country – 3.6 million rubles (about $45,430) – but since the end of February it has been reduced to 2.1 million rubles (about $26,500).

Russia's adapted economy

After the Kremlin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western governments imposed sanctions on Russia to force it to stop the aggression.

However, the Russian economy proved more stable than many experts predicted, thanks in part to continued revenues from oil and gas sales abroad.

The Kremlin has invested money not only in recruiting soldiers, but also in adapting the economy, expanding military industrial capacities to produce tanks, weapons and bombs.

But this transformation has weighed on the economy, increased inflation, and forced the central bank to raise interest rates, making it more expensive for citizens to obtain loans for housing or large products.

According to some European forecasts, Russia's economic growth is expected to slow this year to 1.7 percent, or up to 2 percent, according to some other estimates.

Abbas Gallyamov, an exiled political analyst and former adviser to Putin, says the main reason why regions are cutting payments to recruits is a lack of money.

"They are running out of funds," he tells Radio Free Europe./REL