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"The Guardian" analysis: Serbia, a captured state fueling conflicts. How is he "tolerating" Vucic?

Politiko 2024-01-03 09:32:44

"The Guardian" analysis: Serbia, a captured state fueling conflicts.

According to the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, the country's last parliamentary elections were the "cleanest and most honest" in its history. They were also a triumph for his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), which won by a landslide.

But the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe had a different attitude.

The December 17 survey on the last elections in Serbia showed that the process was conducted in "unfair conditions", damaged by "bias in the media, pressure on public sector employees and misuse of public resources", writes 'The Guardian' . Cases of "serious irregularities" were noted, including vote-buying. Other allegations were made that Bosnian Serbs were bussed en masse to vote through fraud.

The erosion of democratic norms and the rule of law in Serbia has gradually accelerated since the SNS took power over a decade ago – a textual process of state capture overseen by the president since 2017. An autocratic nationalist, the political instincts of forged in the Milosevic era, Vucic also uses his power and influence to foment discord in the Western Balkans, where ethnic Serb secessionist campaigns are backed by Belgrade. But the ambition to draw Serbia into the EU's orbit – and away from Russian influence – has tempered Western criticism to a compromising degree, especially since the invasion of Ukraine.

This lenient approach may end soon. Days of demonstrations followed the disputed election, building on a growing protest movement against Vucic that began in the summer. Last weekend, tens of thousands gathered in a Belgrade square, too, to oppose the rule of Slobodan Milosevic and called for a largely silent Europe to support their cause. In a sign of where the government's instinctive sympathies lie, Mr. Vucic's prime minister, Ana Bnrabic, thanked Russia for providing alleged evidence that the protests were orchestrated in the west.

Intimations of renewed regional conflict promise to force a harder line in Brussels and Washington. In November, Mr Vučić ominously predicted that 2024 would bring "much more conflict and turmoil" in both Kosovo and Republika Srpska - the ethnic Serb entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the latter, Bosnian Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik has threatened to tear up the 1995 Dayton peace accords in the name of Serbian national unity. In Kosovo - whose independence Belgrade continues to refuse to recognize - serious outbreaks of conflict in the ethnic Serb north have raised fears of a future secession attempt.

Hopes that the prospect of EU membership will convince the Serbian government to adhere to democratic norms in the country and to refrain from undermining neighboring states have proved unfounded. But the strategic goal of isolating Russia – also unfulfilled – means the West continues to allow Mr Vucic to pursue his authoritarian, ethno-nationalist agenda.

As one of the main investors in Serbia's growing economy, the EU is viewed favorably by much of the population and has the economic and diplomatic power to decide if it wants to. So far, it has chosen not to, through an understandable fear – shared by the Joe Biden administration – of leaving the Balkans even more open to the influence of Moscow and Beijing. But as he entrenches himself further into the EU's eastern backyard, treating Mr. Vucic as some kind of prodigal son who will eventually mend his ways isn't working.