The US has changed the course of the conflict - how will Iran respond?

No Floto, BBC

As Benjamin Netanyahu stood at the podium in the Israeli prime minister's office this morning, he did not initially address the Israeli people in Hebrew to update them on the latest dramatic development in his latest war.

Instead, he spoke in English, speaking directly and praising US President Donald Trump after the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites.

If Netanyahu's tone was triumphant and his smile barely concealed, that's hardly surprising. He has spent most of his political career obsessed with the threat he believes Iran poses to Israel.

Netanyahu has spent much of the past 15 years trying to convince his American allies that only military action (and only American munitions) can destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program.

While congratulating Trump on a bold decision that will “change history,” Netanyahu can also congratulate himself on changing the mind of an American president who campaigned against military adventures abroad and whose supporters were opposed to joining Israel’s war against Iran.

It should also be noted that Trump's intelligence agencies did not share Israel's assessment of how soon Iran might seek to build a nuclear weapon, nor whether it had made the decision to do so.

Throughout this conflict, which began just 10 days ago, Israel's government and military have insisted that Israel had the capacity to confront the Iranian threat on its own.

But it was no secret that only America possessed the massive munitions capable of dealing with the strongest levels of defense around Iran's nuclear facilities, especially at Fordow, built deep inside a mountain.

If the nuclear sites bombed last night are indeed out of commission, then the Israeli prime minister will be able to declare his primary war goal over, perhaps bringing this conflict closer to an end. For its part, Iran says it has already moved its nuclear material.

But without last night's bombings, Israel would have continued to move forward with the long list of targets that its air force has been compiling for years.

Damage would continue to be inflicted on the Iranian military, its commanders, nuclear scientists, government infrastructure, and parts of the nuclear program accessible to Israel's bombs.

But Netanyahu may have been denied a clear point at which Israel could say the nuclear threat had been definitively neutralized. Perhaps only regime change in Iran could have brought about that moment.

The B2 bombers have undoubtedly changed the trajectory of the war. Whether it escalates further will depend on how Iran and its allies respond.

Last week, Iran's supreme leader vowed to counterattack the US if it entered the war. "Americans should know that any US military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said.

Just Saturday, the Houthi group in Yemen - strong Iranian allies - had threatened to attack American ships transiting the Red Sea if America entered the war.

American military personnel, businesses, and citizens in the region are now potential targets. Iran could retaliate in a number of ways, if it chooses to do so, including attacking American warships or bases in the Persian Gulf, potentially disrupting the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf, and driving up the price of gasoline.

The US has signaled that, for the time being, its military action is over and it has no interest in overthrowing the government in Tehran.

This could encourage Iran to limit its response, perhaps by attacking American targets in ways that do not lead to high casualties, or by using proxies in the region to do the same.

Iran chose to follow this course after Trump ordered the killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guard leader Qasem Soleimani in 2020. On Saturday evening, the US president repeated his threat to Iran to use overwhelming force to counter any retaliation.

This morning the entire Middle East is holding its breath, waiting to see if this marks the beginning of the end of this conflict, or the beginning of an even deadlier phase of the war.