Who is Ahmed Al-Awda, the man who could challenge Syria's new rulers?

Western media and experts have referred to him as "Russia's man in the south" of Syria, and some see him as a potential threat to the state's new ruler, Ahmed al-Sharaa.

His name is Ahmed al-Awda, and his name has dominated the media since the government of former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad was ousted from power last month.

Awda led rebel forces opposing Assad in Daraa, in southern Syria, in the early years of the civil war that began in 2011, before switching alliances and cooperating with Assad's ally, Russia.

As Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – a group designated a terrorist organization by the United States – and its allies launched a rapid offensive from the north against the Assad government on November 27, 2024, Awda and his fighters moved towards Damascus from the south.

"He is an opportunist or an intelligent and pragmatic player, depending on the perspective you look at him," said Robin Yassin-Kassab, co-author of the book "State on Fire: Syrians in Revolution and War."

There are no clear details about Awda's early life. Media outlets, citing people close to him, have said that in the run-up to the Syrian civil war, he fled the country and went to the United Arab Emirates after completing his mandatory military service in the Syrian army.

Awda, who reportedly had no military experience other than military service, returned to Daraa in 2012.

In 2014, he joined the Free Syrian Army, a broad coalition of rebel forces opposing Assad. He took command of the Shabaab Al-Sunna (Sunni Youth) battalion and then took control of his hometown of Bosra in Daraa.

According to people close to him, despite his collaboration with them, he never approached Islamist rebel groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra or the Nusra Front, which was founded by Sharaa, who was then known by his guerrilla nom de guerre, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. Awda has never publicly expressed a desire for rule under Sharia law.

After the major offensive by Syrian government forces in 2018 to retake the south from rebel forces, Awda reached a so-called settlement agreement with Russia.

Under the agreement, the rebels "compromised" with the Assad government, handed over their heavy weaponry and continued to stay in the south.

“In fact, [Awda] achieved a low level of autonomy,” Yassin-Kassab said. “He became a local warlord.”

Awda then became commander of the 8th Brigade, a unit that in 2020 was integrated into the Russian-sponsored 5th Corps of the Syrian army.

Awda, however, switched allegiances once again, following the HTS-led offensive against Assad last November. It is said that, working with HTS, he severed ties with Russia and marched towards Damascus.

On December 8, 2024, Awda and his forces were seen in the Syrian capital before Sharaa's arrival, but they left within hours. While he has not publicly expressed a desire to challenge Sharaa, there have been reports suggesting that he wants to maintain his autonomy in the south.

Powerful states such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are concerned about the regional consequences of an Islamist takeover of Syria.

The concern comes as the US is in the process of lifting some restrictions to ease the transition to a post-Assad era. The European Union is also working towards lifting sanctions on oil, gas, banking and transport, according to an unofficial EU document seen by Radio Free Europe.

Colin Clark, director of policy and research at the New York-based Soufan Group, a consulting firm, said that if Syria's new rulers manage to effectively lead the country, it would serve as "a real boost" for Islamist groups.

"There is concern in the leadership in the UAE and Saudi Arabia that HTS's takeover of Syria will embolden Islamists in these countries, and if [Sharaa] manages to govern, it would be a proof of concept for groups like the Muslim Brotherhood," he added.

Both the Emirates and Saudi Arabia see Islamist movements as existential threats to their monarchies and political systems.

Here, someone like Awda – who is known and has ties to the United Arab Emirates – could step in. Some regional observers have suggested that he could become Syria’s Khalifa Haftar – a statesman backed by the Emirates and Egypt who has challenged the leadership of the United Nations-backed Government of National Accord in Libya.

"I am sure that the Emirates and [Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah] Sisi would help an uprising if someone started an uprising in Syria," Yassin-Kassab said, adding that it depends on how effective and how quickly the new Syrian administration can establish order and authority.

"But if things generally degrade, then Awda could become a war command that would receive funding from abroad," he said./ REL