"SP gets 84 mandates", how did Open Data predict the results of May 11?

The counting of votes within the country has been completed and the Socialist Party currently has 84 mandates, while the PD-AShM coalition has received 50 mandates.

An Open Data Albania projection , conducted two years ago, predicted a victory for the Socialists with the same number of mandates. The projection was carried out in May 2023, after the local elections on May 14.

According to this ODA projection, if elections were held in two years, with the same electoral system, territorial divisions and several small parties in the race, "the Socialist Party would win 84 mandates, 10 more than in the 2021 elections. This is the first paradox found in this projection calculation. While the SP received fewer votes in 2023 than in 2021, the formula and system guarantee it more parliamentary mandates."

Today, as the conclusion of the diaspora votes is awaited, the Socialist Party (SP) still has 84 mandates, just as the Open Data Albania projection predicted.

PROJECTION

Socialist Party , 84 MPs, 10 more than 2021.

Together We Win , 34 MPs. This entity includes the Freedom Party, former LSI led by Ilir Meta, and the part of those who left the Democratic Party known as the Pulpit of former president Sali Berisha. Also here are the Union Party for Human Rights of Vangjel Dule and the Christian Democratic Party, president Nard Ndoka. The typical comparison with 2021 is not possible for this Entity.

The Official Democratic Party , with the votes received in the May 2023 elections, in a 2025 projection receives only 11 MPs.

The Social Democratic Party, led by Tom Doshi, is projected to receive 9 mandates, 6 more than in 2021.

The Agrarian Environmentalist Party with Chairman Agron Duka would also receive 2 mandates.

Other parties, even though they have significant votes in number, would not receive any mandates in the 2025 Elections. Arlind Qori of Lëvizja Bashkë or Endri Shabani of Nisma Thurje would also remain outside the assembly in a result like this one of May 14.

There are 282,850 votes received by other parties, which do not produce any MPs in 2025 if we stick to the system, conditions, and numbers of May 14.

Two hundred and eighty-two thousand eight hundred and fifty voters are equal to 29 deputies if we consider the average vote per mandate to be 9,600 votes (total valid votes 1,344,275 divided by 140 Mandates).

The Parliamentary penetration of new or small parties in a regional proportional electoral system, with the formula of the Current Code, is impossible. The only result or benefit of small parties that together receive 282,850 voters is the right to be financed from the State Budget as political parties that exceed the national threshold of 1 percent, or reach 10,000 total votes.

ODA emphasized in its projection that the formula favored the largest party in the country, the Socialist Party.

"If we look at the result in votes and mandates in the 2021 Election (when there were only 12 entities on the list) with the 2025 Projection according to the May 14 vote (already with 40 competing entities), the result is an inverse ratio of votes to the number of deputies," the projection said.