Voter mobilization at the last minute, key to the presidential runoff in Turkey

The runoff of the presidential elections will take place in Turkey on Sunday. Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the leading candidate after scoring a narrow victory in the first round and securing a majority in parliament. But analysts say his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu has a chance to win if he can mobilize his base.

After President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's surprise first-round victory and securing a parliamentary majority, analysts say political momentum has left Kemal Kilicdaroglu ahead of Sunday's presidential runoff.

"Erdogan undoubtedly enjoys 49.5 percent of the votes he received in the first round, but also the parliamentary majority. So those are very motivating factors as we head into the second round, which makes him the likely second round winner. Kilicdaroglu, on the other hand, is trying to motivate his supporters and increase mobilization, but at the same time allay concerns about his nationalist security policies,"  says analyst Can Selcuki with the Istanbul Economics Research group.

Both candidates in the presidential runoff are aiming to woo nationalist voters, after hard-line nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan's surprisingly strong showing in the first round.

Candidate Kilicdaroglu is hoping to capitalize on nationalist sentiment…and since the end of the first round has been emphasizing his commitment to deporting millions of Syrian refugees.

But analysts warn that such a move is risky, given that until now, his focus has been democratic reform.

"Kiliçdaroglu is probably interested in getting some of the supporters of Sinan Ogan, the third-party candidate, who are on TikTok, or on social media, and are of course motivated by nationalism. So he's leaning a little more in that direction. The problem is that these things are very dangerous, especially if you make these quick changes at the last minute,"  Asli Aydintasbas at the Brookings Institute told VOA.

Another challenge for Mr. Kilicdaroglu is that Erdogan's coalition, led by the AKP Party, gave him an absolute majority in parliament, a sign that voters want to stay in the same direction.

"The government is definitely promoting continuity, while the opposition is promoting balance. Often in the past we have seen that the Turkish electorate usually chooses continuity over the notion of balance",  says analyst Can Selcuki for VOA.

Kilicdaroglu tried to gain political support by appearing on a popular YouTube show for four hours, answering questions from the audience.

With Mr Erdogan's voters outnumbering Mr Kilicdaroglu's in their respective strongholds, the latter's chances now depend on how many of his supporters he can get back to the polls.

"The possibility of another Erdoğan victory and the concern of what might happen to their future and that of their children, may make voters put aside their doubts and complaints about Kilicdaroglu and go to the polls. This is the only thing that can change the facts on the ground",  Atilla Yesilada with the group "Global Source Partners" tells VOA.

With the political momentum seemingly on Erdogan's side, analysts say that candidate Kilicdaroglu must find a way to reactivate his supporters at the last minute./VOA