Dozens of administrative units without children, how is the South dying out?

In the administrative unit of Frashër in Përmet, when the 2023 census was conducted, there were fewer than two children per 100 inhabitants. In Voskopoja, there were also only 2 children per 100 inhabitants.

Detailed data from the 2023 Census indicate that rural areas, mainly in the South of the country, will disappear in the not-so-distant future due to a lack of children.

In the administrative units of Frashër, Voskopoje, Pogon, Aliko, Zagori, Mesopotan, Ngraçan, Dhiver, Qendër Leskovik, Odrie, Finiq, Livadhja, Çepan, Dropull i posiđem, children under 14 years of age were less than 5% of the total population.

In 14 administrative units (out of 377 administrative units, which also includes municipalities) the number of children aged 0-14 accounted for less than 5 percent of the total population (see graph below.

In 32 other administrative units, it is seen that children aged 0-14 account for 5-10 percent of the total population.

In 177 administrative units, children accounted for 10-15% of the total population.

In 33 units, children aged 0-14 accounted for 15 to 20% of the total population, and in only 24 administrative units did children account for over 20-27 percent of the total population.

The former municipality of Tërthore in Kukës ranks as the administrative unit with the highest number of children in relation to the total population. Census 2023 data showed that in this administrative unit 27 percent of the residents were under 14 years old.

The second ranked administrative unit is Gjinaj, also in Kukës, in which 26.1% of the residents were children, followed by the former Kolsh Municipality, also in Kukës, where 25% of the residents were children.

The Administrative Units of Kukës lead for the still high ratios of children in relation to the population compared to other regions of the country. The administrative units, Zapod, Surroj, Fajzë, Shtiqen, Arrën, Grykë Qajë, Ujmisht, Golaj, Krumë, Bicaj, Kalis are all part of the Kukës municipality and have the highest number of children in relation to the population with over 21%, ranking at the top of the administrative units for the young population. These units also have significantly decreased birth rates during the transition, but still the birth rates are the highest in the country. On the other hand, these units also have the highest level of poverty in the country.

The 2023 Census data on demographic composition informs how public funds should be allocated, especially in education. Meanwhile, in the southern administrative units, infrastructure for the elderly needs to be prepared more quickly.

As the vast majority of the country's population ages, neither local nor central government is adapting social policies to demographic developments. In the North, school dropout is increasing due to school closures and concentration, while in the South, thousands of elderly people suffering from chronic diseases are not receiving social care.

In the 2011 census, the 0-14 age group accounted for 20.6 percent of the total population, while in the previous year's census it was 15.5%.

In 2011, there were 578.5 thousand young people under 14 years old, while in 2023 only 373.9 thousand, a decrease of 35%.

The youth dependency ratio decreased to 24.0 percent from 30.4 percent estimated in the 2011 Census, and the elderly dependency ratio increased to 30.4 percent from 16.7 percent in 2011.

Analyzed at the regional level, Kukës and Gjirokastra hold opposite positions in terms of dependency ratios: Kukës has the highest youth dependency ratio of 31.8 percent and the lowest elderly dependency ratio of 19.9 percent.

Meanwhile, Gjirokastra has the lowest youth dependency ratio (19.0 percent) and the highest elderly dependency ratio (46.1 percent). The average age of the population is 42.5 years, up from 35.3 years in the 2011 Census./ Monitor