Abazović and the double anathemas

With Genc Pollo

Perhaps the laws of politics have the certainty of the laws of physics when it comes to the kingmaker of a governing majority.

Abazovic and his party "URA" with four deputies in the parliament became the kingmaker in the government formed after the general elections of August 2020. This enabled the change of personal power after nearly two decades and of the ruling party after seven decades. This is no small achievement!

However, the coalition turned out to be a basket of lobsters where the largest member was pro-Russian, pro-Serb (actually Serbian!), anti-NATO, anti-independent Kosovo and not pro-EU. This situation puts limits on an ambitious king maker: Abazovic was appointed deputy prime minister of Montenegro responsible for the security sector. Exposing and cracking down on corruption in some old power networks was an achievement. Despite the sometimes dubious legality.

However, the government had no other achievements; Of course, he made quite a few mistakes. The incidents surrounding the enthronement of the bishop of the Serbian church in Cetina marked the end of this government. The next government surprised with Abazovic as prime minister and the party of his archenemy, President Djukanovic, as the main coalition force.

At best, this new government would stabilize the volatile political situation and prepare for new elections, including consensual electoral reform and revision of voter lists. Ideally, the government would undertake real reforms required by the EU accession process.

Abazovic did neither. But he chose to provoke the biggest bearer of his government: the president's party.

First by trying to join the Open Balkans process.

Second by signing a capitulation agreement with the Serbian Orthodox Church.

The Open Balkans was rightly rejected by all previous Montenegrin governments (including the one where Abazovic served as Deputy Prime Minister) as well as President Djukanovic. The reason was that this initiative constituted an unnecessary duplication of the Common Regional Market (Berlin Process). Also because this initiative was considered as a means of achieving regional hegemony by Serbia.

The Open Balkans has also been used to isolate Kosovo. For Abazović, an ethnic Albanian and a self-declared pro-European, this should have been a double anathema (it should be noted that he ran on behalf of a non-ethnic but pan-Montenegrin civic movement).

Partia e Gjukanoviçit humbi zgjedhjet e vitit 2020 sepse u përpoq  për të forcuar kishën historike ortodokse të Malit të Zi.  E cila u përfshi në Kishën Ortodokse Serbe në vitin 1918 kur Mali i Zi, deri atëhere i pavarur, u reduktua në një provincë të Mbretërisë së Jugosllavisë të porsaformuar.  Përpjekja ligjore në vitin 2019 për t'i rikthyer pronat Kishës Ortodokse Malazeze energjizoi opozitën pro-serbe, u rriti numrin e mandateve parlamentare dhe përfundimisht i bëri mazhorancë qeveritare.

Zakonisht në Ballkan  kisha kombëtare  ka luajtur një rol qëndror në formimin e identitetit kombëtar gjatë shekujve të fundit të sundimit osman dhe dekadave të para të pavarësisë shtetërore. Ende sot ajo mbetet një referencë e rëndësishme.

Kisha gjithashtu mund t'a teprojë me etnofiletizëm dhe të apelojë  për vrasjen e "të tjerëve".  Kështu bëri kisha serbe gjatë luftërave në ish Jugosllavi; të njëjtën sjellje po bën aktualisht kisha ruse.  Në këtë këndvështrim, përpjekjet e Gjukanoviqit bëhen të kuptueshme.

Marrëveshja e nënshkruar nga kryeministri Abazovic me kreun e kishës serbe, i jep kësaj të fundit jo vetëm pronat e diskutueshme e pozitën preeminente në vend, por edhe konfirmimin e pretendimit të saj historik primordial.  Do të ishte e vështirë të imagjinohej një fyerje publike më brutale ndaj presidentit e ndaj koalicionit.

Dhe për një udhëheqës qytetar, e aq më tepër për një shqiptar etnik, koncesione të tilla do të ishin sërish një anatemë e dyfishtë.

Both of these Abazovic adventures are somewhat reminiscent of the Nixon paradox. The republican president of the USA was the only one who could dare to approach communist China to take it out of the Soviet orbit. It's just that Abazovic lacks Nixon's objective and strategic foresight.

A final note about a government kingmaker and a junior coalition partner: the junior partner can veto the senior partner's initiatives; sometimes voting against or other times threatening to collapse the government. But also the junior partner cannot impose every initiative of his own on the senior partner. This is as certain as gravity and other laws of physics. And, if it still matters, it is not democratic!