Will Pope Francis' successor be a Hungarian?

Following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, speculation has begun about his successor at the helm of the Holy See. One of the leading candidates is Peter Erdo, the archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest.

The 72-year-old Hungarian cardinal has held important positions in the Catholic Church over the past few decades and was mentioned as a potential candidate in 2013, when Pope Francis was eventually elected. Does Erdo stand a chance of succeeding the Argentine? And, perhaps most intriguingly, what is his relationship with Hungary's increasingly authoritarian prime minister, Viktor Orban?

Who is Peter Erdo?

Erdoğan is widely considered to be “papable” – a term used for candidates with a realistic chance of becoming pope.

Theoretically, any baptized Catholic male is eligible for the papacy, but since the 14th century, only cardinals have been elected. There are currently 252 cardinals, but only 135 of them have the right to vote, as only those under the age of 80 can participate in the conclave. Erdoğan could manage to secure two-thirds of the votes in the Papal Conclave that is expected to begin in early May (no earlier than 16 days after the pope’s death, according to current rules).

His credentials are strong: from 2006 to 2016 he headed the Council of European Bishops' Conferences – an important organization representing Catholic bishops in Europe.

This is significant, as European cardinals continue to make up the largest voting bloc. But Erdo has not only built connections in Europe. Through his work on the council, he has established regular contact with Church representatives from Africa, Asia and Latin America – regions that are increasingly gaining influence in the Catholic Church.

He is fluent in Italian and Latin – key languages ​​in the Vatican hierarchy – and is a renowned expert in canon law, which governs the internal functioning of the Church. One of his greatest achievements is bringing the International Eucharistic Congress to Budapest in 2021 – a major event that brought together clergy and faithful from around the world, including the pope.

This activity gave Erdos a powerful platform to increase his visibility and build important networks both in the Vatican and in Catholic parishes around the globe. But perhaps his strongest weapon is pragmatism.

Although he is considered a conservative – for example, he opposes giving Holy Communion to divorced Catholics – Erdo has cooperated with Pope Francis and avoided public criticism of him, unlike many figures on the traditionalist wing. Pope Francis has even included Erdoğan in organizing special Vatican meetings on family issues, and visited Hungary twice during his term.

Is Erdo related to Viktor Orban?

But what can be said about Erdoğan's ties to Viktor Orbán's government and the ruling party, Fidesz – which self-identifies as a defender of Judeo-Christian values ​​and often clashes with European Union institutions?

The Hungarian state finances the Catholic Church and other recognized religious communities through support for religious education, compensation for property confiscated by the communist regime, and the organization of events such as the Eucharistic Congress. During the 2015 migrant crisis, Erdoğan compared accepting migrants to aiding human trafficking—a stance more in line with Orbán’s rhetoric than with the more tolerant stance of Pope Francis.

However, he then warned against a clash of religions and questioned whether a continent can truly be called "Christian," indirectly countering Orbán's rhetoric against the "Islamization of Europe."

Erdoğan appears to be taking the same pragmatic approach to the Hungarian government as he has to factions within the Catholic Church. He has not publicly supported the ruling party, but many priests in Hungary have urged believers to vote for Fidesz.

He has picked his battles with Budapest carefully. He has remained silent on some controversial laws, but has spoken out on others. For example, he did not criticize the 2018 ban on homeless people – a move that ran counter to the teachings of Pope Francis. But when the government moved to nationalize IVF clinics a year later, Erdoğan did not spare criticism.

Although many Vatican observers believe that the first African or Asian pope could be elected, a compromise candidate to stabilize the Church after Francis' progressive and challenging years could be the primate of Hungary. / REL