"Europe is now holding its breath and repositioning itself"/DW: What does Donald Trump's victory mean for NATO?

Officially, Donald Trump won the US election only around noon on Wednesday (06.11.) German time. But by then, congratulations from NATO headquarters had already been sent across the Atlantic. New NATO chief Mark Rutte wrote:

We face a growing number of global challenges. These include an increasingly aggressive Russia, terrorism, strategic competition with China, and the growing rapprochement between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran.

It can be assumed that Rutte has thought this text through very carefully and included some key words that will ring alarm bells with Trump. These are terrorism, China, North Korea and Iran. Ukraine, however, is not mentioned at all.

Open about what this means for Ukraine

This is an indication that not only Europe may need the US, but the US also needs NATO. After all, the US is the only one that has ever used Article 5 of the NATO treaty for support. "One for all" can apply to all.

Exit from NATO was no longer on the agenda of the American electoral campaign. On the other hand, the demand for more money for NATO was. Anyone who falls short of his two percent target will not be protected, Trump said at a campaign rally. Meanwhile, more than two-thirds of NATO countries spend two percent or more of their economic power on defense. Trump may seek more than two percent during his second term, however, given global conflicts.

Lack of political will?

For Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chair of the Defense Committee in the European Parliament, the time for comfort is over in any case: "The new American President Trump will demand sternly that Europe make its contribution," she said after the election. Europe is a continent of about 450 million people with a strong gross national product and it can do this. But, according to the FDP politician, there is a lack of political will for this.

Germany, as the EU's largest member, will be particularly in demand. But German Finance Minister Christian Linder insists on the constitutional brake on borrowing, and countries like France and Italy are deeply in debt. So the question is where the extra money for defense will come from. Daniel Caspary, MEP from the CDU, calls for other priorities in the budgets of different countries. This is a topic that is likely to be addressed by the new European Commission.

Its Secretary General, Rutte, also notes that there is now more money for defense within NATO. "You are welcomed by a stronger, bigger and more united alliance," Rutte wrote to Trump. Pressure exerted by Trump during his first term also contributed, he admits.

But it's not just about the money. The big question that worries Europe is what will happen to Ukraine. Aside from Trump's vague hints that he would end the war within days or even hours, and a public leak of information that he occasionally speaks on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin, little concrete is known.

Will Trump stop sending weapons to Ukraine – or maybe even more? After all, 68 percent of NATO's military aid is ordered from American arms companies. No one knows how high on Trump's agenda the war in Ukraine is. In any case, this topic played almost no role in the electorate: only two percent were interested in foreign policy according to polls.

Maybe a deal could help

Therefore, the war against Ukraine remains above all a problem for the Europeans: "We are convinced that both the US and the EU have an interest in Ukraine being strong and independent," declared European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer on election day in Brussels.

And maybe the new American government will also be interested in the huge amount of raw materials that the Ukrainian underground holds: lithium, cobalt, titanium. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensi has already declared that anyone who defends his country should have access to these raw materials. However, this would be an agreement entirely in the spirit of the American president-elect./DW