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Assad's overthrow, the latest Turkish success in the rivalry with Iran

Politiko 2025-01-14 15:19:53

The overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria is Turkey's latest success in competing with Iran for regional influence. However, as VOA's Dorian Jones reports, analysts say Tehran still possesses capabilities it can exploit in its growing rivalry with Ankara.

The Syrian rebels who toppled President Bashar al-Assad had the support of Turkey. Iran has supported the Assad regime. The rebel victory is the latest victory for Ankara in its rivalry with Tehran for regional influence, analysts say.

" Turkey has weakened Iran in Iraq, Syria, and the South Caucasus. So, Turkey has won the competition with Iran in all three of these conflicts. It is in Turkey's interest for Iran to be further weakened ," says Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara.

Analysts often characterize relations between Iran and Turkey as a balance between competition and cooperation. However, they say, cooperation is giving way to increasingly bitter rivalry. Ankara seeks to expand influence in areas that Iran considers to be within its sphere of influence and that are often defended by groups backed by Tehran.

"Since the beginning of the Arab uprisings, Iran began to treat Turkey as an enemy. Groups that have Iranian support harm Turkey's national interests. Iran was also one of the countries that helped two Kurdish rebel groups in Iraq and Syria," says Professor Bilgehan Alagoz from Marmara University.

The Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, has fought for decades for greater rights for the Kurdish minority. Turkey accuses the Kurdish group in Syria, known as the YPG, of having links to the PKK. Analysts suggest Tehran could counter Ankara by supporting Kurdish militant groups through Iranian-backed groups in the region.

Analysts also say that Iran's weakening is a common cause of Turkey and Israel.

" Israel and Turkey have a common interest in stopping the spread of Iranian influence. You've seen Israel and Turkey cooperate indirectly. Israel weakened the Hezbollah group in Lebanon and Turkey supported the rebel movement in Syria and that's how Assad fell ," says Gallia Lindenstrauss of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

Analysts see potential for cooperation between the Turkish President, who seeks to strengthen relations with the United States, and President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to take a tougher stance against Iran.

" If Mr. Trump intends to implement new solutions and methodologies with Iran, then Washington needs Turkey's help and cooperation. From a broader perspective, Turkey and the United States need to come together ," says Mesut Casin, an advisor to the Turkish president.

Analysts say Iran and Turkey have managed to avoid direct confrontation in their centuries-old rivalry. However, after Turkish-backed rebels ousted Tehran's ally in Syria, their ability to keep the rivalry under control could be tested./VOA