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4th election in just 18 months, what you need to know about Sunday's vote in Bulgaria
Bulgaria is embroiled in such political turmoil that Sunday's snap election will be the fourth in just 18 months. So what's behind the volatility and is there a solution on the horizon?
How did it reach this point?
Bulgaria, which joined the European Union along with neighboring Romania 15 years ago, had enjoyed relative stability until two years ago. But large-scale and prolonged anti-government protests rocked the country in the summer of 2020.
People accused the government of Boyko Borisov, first elected in 2009, of corruption and backsliding. However, his party Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) won the elections scheduled for April 2021.
However, with 20 seats less, Borisov was unable to form a government. Indeed, no party was able to form a coalition to govern. So a snap election was held three months later, where the ITN party, founded by Bulgarian TV presenter and musician Slavi Trifonov, narrowly won the majority of seats.
But another three months later, in November, Bulgarians returned to the polls again after ITN failed to form a coalition government. This led to a new party, We Continue Change (PP), winning and forming a coalition with several other parties, including ITN.
But just over six months after forming a government, ITN pulled out, citing disagreements with coalition partners over the budget and disappointment in progress in tackling corruption.
The head of the ITN Slavi Trifonov also accused the PP of trying to remove the veto for the start of EU accession talks with North Macedonia, ignoring Bulgaria's national interests.
What are the main parties in the election?
Citizens for the European Development of Bulgaria (GERB): The right-wing party of Boyko Borisov, who was Bulgaria's prime minister for more than a decade until 2021.
We continue the change (PP): Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev formed this new centrist party just a year ago. She spent six months in government before the ruling coalition collapsed.
There is such a people (ITN): Bulgarian singer and presenter Slavi Trifonov formed this party in 2020, naming it after one of his albums. It triggered the October election when it withdrew from the last governing coalition.
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS): Long-established centrist party that mainly represents the country's Turkish minority
Partia Socialiste e Bullgarisë (BSP): Pasardhëse e Partisë Komuniste Bullgare që ishte një nga partitë në koalicionin më të fundit të qeverisë së vendit.
Rilindja (Vazrajdane): Partia nacionaliste pro-ruse që pritet të dalë shumë mirë në zgjedhjet e parakohshme të tetorit.
Koalicioni i Bullgarisë Demokratike (DB): Koleksion i larmishëm i tre partive -- duke marrë të gjelbërt, liberalët dhe demokratët e krahut të djathtë -- të njohur kolektivisht si "e djathta urbane".
Ngritja Bullgare (BV): Ish-kryeministri në detyrë Stefan Yanev formoi këtë parti konservatore në maj. Disa e përshkruajnë atë si pro-ruse. Yanev u shkarkua nga qeveria e fundit pasi rekomandoi që bullgarët t'i përmbahen përshkrimit të Putinit për luftën në Ukrainë: "një operacion special ushtarak".
Cilat janë problemet kryesore për votuesit?
Sondazhet e fundit tregojnë se shqetësimet kryesore të bullgarëve lidhen me inflacionin, rritjen e çmimeve dhe krizën e afërt të energjisë. Kjo për shkak se norma vjetore e inflacionit të vendit arriti në 15% në gusht.
Ajo po nxitet nga rritja e çmimeve të energjisë pasi Gazprom ndaloi dërgesat e gazit natyror në prill sepse Sofja refuzoi të paguante në rubla.
Në Bullgari, vendi më i varfër ndër 27 anëtarët e Bashkimit Evropian, kostot në rritje të energjisë po i detyrojnë familjet të shkurtojnë shpenzimet shtesë përpara muajve të ardhshëm të dimrit për t'u siguruar që ka para të mjaftueshme për të blerë ushqime dhe ilaçe.
Lidhur me këtë, ka pasur edhe një ndryshim në atë që i shtyn njerëzit të votojnë, thonë ekspertët. Në zgjedhjet e vitit të kaluar, elektorati u nda midis partive që përfaqësonin status quo-në dhe atyre që premtonin ndryshim.
Por lufta në Ukrainë ka ndryshuar gjithçka. "Lufta në Ukrainë ka shkaktuar një ndarje të re në politikën bullgare," tha sociologu Dimitar Ganev.
Pse duhet të kujdeset pjesa tjetër e Evropës për zgjedhjet e Bullgarisë?
Thyerjet që po përcaktojnë politikën e Bullgarisë përforcojnë më tej opozitën dhe me ndarjen e votave midis më shumë partive që bëjnë parashikime për rezultatin përfundimtar është më e vështirë, sipas shkencëtares politike Teodora Yovçeva.
Kjo, shton ajo, duhet të japë një paralajmërim për pjesën tjetër të Evropës.
"Bullgaria po hyn në një spirale në rënie të zgjedhjeve dhe ky është një fenomen që ka të gjitha gjasat për t'u përhapur në pjesë të tjera të Evropës," tha Yovçeva.
Kush ka gjasa të dalë triumfues nga zgjedhjet në Bullgari?
Aleanca politike GERB-SDS kryesoi një nga sondazhet e fundit të opinionit nga Gallup International më parë në shtator. Parashikohet të marrë 25.8% të votave, e ndjekur nga Ne Vazhdojmë Ndryshimin (PP) me 16.6%.
Ndërkohë, partia pro-ruse Rilindja (Vazrajdane) dhe Lëvizja për të Drejta dhe Liri (DPS) parashikohet të marrin rreth 13%.
Simeonov tha se një nga pikëpyetjet e këtyre zgjedhjeve është se çfarë ndodh me partitë e këngëtarit bullgar Slavi Trifonov (Ka një popull të tillë - ITN) dhe ish-kryeministrit në detyrë Stefan Yanev (lëvizja pro-ruse, e quajtur Ngritja Bullgare)
ITN is facing a record loss in vote share. During last year's elections, it was the second largest party. It may now struggle to reach the 4% threshold to enter parliament. The main slogan of the party is the transformation of Bulgaria from a parliamentary republic to a semi-presidential republic.
In Bulgaria, when a government falls and a new one cannot be agreed upon, the constitution says the president must appoint an interim and temporary cabinet to govern until new parliamentary elections are held.
Bulgaria's president, Rumen Radev, has therefore recruited three of the country's most recent coalitions, making him a key figure in the political turmoil that has gripped the EU country in recent years.
Source: Euronews
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