German Elections/Analysis: Far-right party expects increase in support in February 23 elections

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) appears to be on track for its strongest showing in national elections yet. German elections are due this month. Although it is unlikely to win a share of power anytime soon, the party has become a factor that other politicians cannot ignore and has managed to influence the debate on migration in Germany.

The far-right party first entered Germany's national parliament eight years ago amid discontent with the influx of migrants in the mid-2010s. Curbing immigration remains its main theme. However, the party has proven adept at exploiting discontent on other issues: Germany's move away from fossil fuels, restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic and support for Ukraine after Moscow's aggression began nearly three years ago.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD), founded in 2013, initially focused on opposing bailouts for struggling countries during the eurozone debt crisis. The measures were described by German Chancellor Angela Merkel as “without alternative.” It was initially known as the “party of professors,” a reference to the party’s leading figures in its early days, although it has since become identified with a strong far-right wing.

Over the years, the AfD has become more radical and has changed leaders several times. It was Chancellor Merkel's decision in 2015 to allow in large numbers of immigrants that strengthened it as a political force. In the 2017 national elections, it won 12.6% of the vote, securing seats in the German parliament for the first time.

After returning to parliament in 2021 with a reduced support of 10.3%, the AfD gained strength as Chancellor Olaf Scholz's center-left government faced a series of crises, some of its own making, and finally collapsed.

Germany faced a wave of protests a year ago sparked by a report that showed right-wing extremists met to discuss deporting millions of migrants, including some with German citizenship. At that meeting, the report said, AfD members were present.

But that did not do the AfD any lasting harm in the polls. It finished second in the European Parliament elections in June and September. Meanwhile, in a pair of state elections, it was its most prominent right-wing figure, Björn Höcke, who secured the first far-right victory in Germany since World War II.

The AfD is heading into the February 23 election with renewed confidence and more radical language. Alice Weidel, its first female candidate for chancellor, has coined the term “re-emigration” as the party calls for large-scale deportations of people without a legal right to be in Germany.

The AfD calls for the immediate lifting of sanctions against Russia and opposes arms shipments to Ukraine. It wants Germany to start using a national currency. It also wants the European Union to become a more freely functioning “association of European nations,” although it does not directly call for leaving the 27-nation bloc.

Germany's intelligence agency is keeping the party under surveillance for suspected right-wing extremism. AfD branches in three eastern states are called "confirmed right-wing extremist" groups. The AfD strongly disputes these assessments and denies any links to the Nazi past. Mr. Höcke has appealed two convictions for knowingly using a Nazi slogan at a political event.

The AfD has support across Germany and is represented in all but two of the 16 state legislatures, but the party is strongest in the former communist and less prosperous east.

It has a unique ability to exploit issues “that other parties do not address with the same clarity and intensity or radicalism,” says Wolfgang Schroeder, a professor of political science at the Berlin Center for Social Sciences. “In addition, it is an internet party and from the beginning it used the power of the internet for communication much better than all the other German parties combined.”

This has helped it secure support among young voters in recent regional elections. The party portrays itself as a force against elites at a time when trust in politicians is declining. The AfD has often referred to the 'old parties' as a 'cartel'.

Professor Schroeder described it as “a field that gathers anger and resentment.” Other parties say they will not work with it.

Who are her friends abroad?

The AfD's rise coincides with the rise of far-right parties in many other European countries, including Austria's Freedom Party and France's National Rally, with which it shares many points of contact. Ms Weidel was in Budapest to visit Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Wednesday.

However, it is not part of the group of these parties called 'Patriots for Europe' in the European Parliament after some tensions between them before last year's EU elections. The AfD was excluded after its leading candidate at the time, Maximilian Krah, said that not all members of the Nazi SS group "were necessarily criminals".

The party has found an enthusiastic supporter in billionaire Elon Musk, a close ally of US President Donald Trump. Mr Musk has declared that “only the AfD can save Germany”. He held a live chat on the social network ‘X’ with Ms Weidel, the AfD candidate for chancellor, and made a live video link to an AfD campaign rally.

At that rally, Ms. Weidel vowed to "make Germany great again," echoing the American president's slogan./ VOA