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REL: France joins Germany in political chaos

Politiko 2024-12-05 15:21:00

REL: France joins Germany in political chaos

It was clear that this would happen sooner or later. Michel Barnier became the shortest-lived prime minister in French history, not even lasting 100 days in office, after Parliament ousted him on December 4 - a feat not seen since 1962.

All of this came in the wake of shock snap elections this summer, in which the far right and a coalition of leftist parties won seats, forcing the politically weakened president, Emmanuel Macron, and his centrist forces to form a minority government. unstable, which could only govern with the consent of the populist Marine Le Pen.

Now, there will be a new government that will probably not survive for very long, as the parameters are exactly the same – a deal with the extreme left or the extreme right until a new election can be constitutionally called in summer of 2025.

Macron is likely to nominate popular Armed Forces minister Sebastien Lecornu from his Renaissance party to try to form a new government that can navigate the volatile national assembly and get enough votes to make any work. But the wisest predictions are that he will fail outright or surpass Barnier's undesirable record for the shortest term as prime minister.

There will be calls for Macron to step down as president before his term ends in 2027, but he is likely to stay on. That means he will continue to steer foreign policy, as French presidents of state usually do, but he will be constrained by the chaos in Paris that will absorb his energy and attention.

He will also be financially strapped, as the government collapsed due to the inability to agree on an austerity budget. The deficit is currently 6.1% of Gross Domestic Product – drawing criticism and potentially financial fines from Brussels and causing fears in financial markets of a new crisis in the eurozone.

And, this comes at the absolute worst time for the EU, as the bloc's other major power, Germany, is a "lame goose" awaiting new federal elections at the end of February, with potentially protracted talks on forming a coalition.

Will there still be sufficient willingness to support Ukraine politically, militarily and most importantly – financially? There will likely be enough funding for Kiev next year, but after that?

Simply put: Europe's two engines stalling amid mounting demands from the incoming US administration for increased European defense spending, as well as signals for new transatlantic trade tariffs, is a scenario that someone in the Kremlin could want to use it to fuel his power struggles in 2025./ REL

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