The euro continues to "roll", it drops below 102 lek

 

The euro continues to "roll" in the exchange rate with the Lek even after the November holidays.

According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the Euro was exchanged on Thursday at 101.92 ALL, down 0.51 ALL compared to the end of last week.

This is the lowest level of the Euro-Lek exchange rate since August 1. Only in the last 30 days, the Euro-Lek exchange rate has fallen by 3.4%, while compared to the same period a year ago, the fall has reached 12.8%.

The fall of the Euro continues to affect the exchange rate of other main currencies against the Lek.

The American dollar was exchanged on Thursday at 93.32 lek, the lowest level since August 2. In one month, the American currency has depreciated by 6.5%, while compared to the same period a year ago, the drop in the dollar rate has reached 17.2%.

The British pound and the Swiss franc rose slightly today, but remain near four-month lows.

According to exchange rate agents, during the month of November, the fall of the Euro-Lek exchange rate was influenced by an increase in the supply of Euros in the foreign exchange market. It is estimated that a significant part of the increase in the supply of the Euro is related to electricity exports.

During the month of November, the Albanian Electric Power Corporation carried out five electricity sales procedures, during which electricity was sold for a value of approximately 10 million euros. But, according to market sources, other private energy producers have also realized significant foreign exchange sales, which indicates a significant effect of foreign exchange inflows from energy exports.

The increase in the supply of the Euro came at a time when the exchange rate was already characterized by a constant supply of the currency, especially related to tourism, and by a low demand for the European currency. Agents believe that many of the economy's major importers made currency purchases during the summer season to take advantage of the low levels of the Euro-Lek exchange rate. This has caused the demand for currency to be lower in the coming months.

On the other hand, the market seems to continue to suffer from a tightening of the Lek supply. In October, deposits in Lek registered the highest monthly growth of 2023, but, as a whole, the monetary aggregate M2 registered a very small increase. The annual growth of aggregate M2, which represents money supply in Lek, slowed further to 1.9%, remaining close to the lowest levels of the last five years.

The Albanian government's record budget surplus has also played a significant role in curbing the supply of Lek. At the end of the 10th month, the surplus was worth more than 48 billion ALL. Now, an effect however small from the increase in budget expenditures on the exchange rate can be felt only during the month of December, perhaps in its last days, as it happened last year.

The Euro-Lek exchange rate is marking a new and unexpected cycle of decline, which is taking it close to the lowest historical levels, which were recorded in July of this year. The strengthening of the Lek in theory helps to reduce inflationary pressures, but on the other hand it further tests those sectors of the economy with income in foreign currency and expenses in Lek, starting with exporters of goods and services./ Monitor