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High prices curb trade, imports in quantity began to decline in the first quarter (excluding construction)

Politiko 2022-05-02 08:19:12

High prices curb trade, imports in quantity began to decline in the first

High commodity prices around the world are signaling weaknesses in consumption, a phenomenon that is bringing about chain effects in trade and further, in the overall performance of the economy.

Foreign trade data in the first quarter of 2020 from INSTAT show that the total quantity of imported goods began to decline. In January-March 2022, 1,178 thousand tons of goods were imported, with a modest decrease of 0.2% compared to the first quarter of 2022, although in value, imports marked an increase of over 28%, as a result of higher prices. Imports in quantities are showing that rising prices have curbed consumption.

From the processing of data on imports in the amount of 90 chapters of goods it is seen that for 32 groupings there was a double-digit decrease in most of them. The decline in imports is showing new consumer trends after rising prices.

Imports have fallen for non-essential goods (some categories related to home furnishings and raw materials for some industries), as a non-increase in non-imported quantities of food is seen. The purchasing trend is focusing on vital products by quantities of imports.

The second largest group of imports in the amount of fuels and minerals decreased by 11.8%, mainly due to the contraction of imports of oil in March. The fourth most imported group in quantities (cereals) decreased by 4.1%.

Agricultural fertilizers, the 13th group in terms of high volume of imports marked an annual decline of 75% in January-March 2022. Imports of machinery and equipment, pharmaceuticals, furniture and other home appliances were also declining. , etc.

Exceptions have been construction-related products. Imports of "Construction materials and metals" increased by almost 10% for the quarter on an annual basis. The group "Food, Tobacco" (+ 15%) was also growing due to the rush of consumers to secure supplies, after the initial panic caused by Russia's attack on Ukraine.

The decline in import volumes was also confirmed by the transport sector. According to data from INSTAT, the volume of goods transported by sea, air and rail decreased in March. In contrast, passenger transport has increased significantly, both by sea and by air.

The volume of goods loaded / unloaded at ports in March 2022 is 355.9 thousand tons, decreasing by 4.0% compared to March 2021. In the first quarter of 2022, the volume of goods loaded / unloaded at ports is 1,000 thousand tons, decreasing by 7.4%, compared to the first quarter of 2021.

Despite the decrease in quantity, imports in value marked an annual increase of 28% in the first quarter as a result of the unusual increase in commodity prices in international markets.

The groups that have had a positive impact on the annual growth of imports in value are "Minerals, fuels and electricity" with + 10.7 percentage points, "Construction materials and metals" with +7.3 percentage points and "Food, beverages, tobacco" ”With +4.3 percentage points./Monitor