Alarm siren for extinguishing Albania

 

The population decline of about 420,000 people in the last decade, down to 2.4 million inhabitants, according to the results of the 2023 Census, seemed to catch no one by surprise, perhaps because they expected the figure to be even lower. And there are quite a few voices that express skepticism about this figure as well.

But even the official data, which approaches the decline of almost 20% against the remaining population in just a 10-year period, is quite dramatic and a strong signal of alarm about the rate of extinction of the country. 

In fact, such a decline had long been predicted. All the data of the last years showed that the population was shrinking rapidly, mainly influenced by the resurgence of the wave of immigration, in addition to the normal change of lifestyle and the gradual aging of the population, which brought the natural increase in the country close to zero. 

Since 2015, asylum requests started to increase again. After peaking at around 62,000 in 2016, to decline thereafter (yes, no less than 20,000 per year, apart from the pandemic), they peaked again in 2022, with more than 30,000 applications, as the UK became a destination especially frequent illegal immigration, alarming the British government.

Other data from Eurostat on residence permits for Albanian citizens show that their number reached 73,000 in 2023, the highest level since 2010, which reflected the impact of the second wave of immigration in recent years. 90.

In the domestic market, the signal was given before the pandemic. For the first time, the main concern of businesses became the lack of skilled labor. The third wave of emigration already included educated, high-income families, who did not leave only for economic reasons, but for lack of perspective. The most sensitive was the flight of young people. Over 70% of requests from asylum seekers were made by persons under 29 years of age, or minors.

After the pandemic, the rates of emigration accelerated significantly, peaking in 2022 and 2023. The effect of emigration was so evident that businesses reported a significant contraction in the consumption of basic goods, from bread, sugar, processed meat products, to were mainly the basis of young people's meals.

Their departure created a real deadlock in the labor market, forcing businesses, especially tourism ones, to raise some salaries, such as for sanitary service employees, up to one thousand euros per month.  

All these signals were not enough for the government to take immigration seriously and take measures to create a more stable and attractive environment in the country, to curb it.

The Prime Minister would declare that fleeing is normal and happens in every country in the world, despite the fact that Albania was the second in the world for asylum requests in relation to the population, being compared to the population of countries at war.

Even today, when the fall was officially confirmed, surprisingly we have no reaction from the government. Maybe for the moment it can be satisfied, because some indicators such as income per capita, or unemployment will be adjusted with a drop of the pencil, because the denominator decreases. For the consequences, which are being felt daily with medium-term damage, no one seems to be giving a damn.

The data are really alarming, for a country that is going through a good economic moment, driven by the tourist boom and the revival of consumption by foreign tourists. The 15-29 age group has halved in the past decade, warning that the workforce crisis will deepen further.

Businesses are being forced to raise wages, without increasing productivity, negatively affecting not only their plans or investments , but also the economic perspective. Hiring foreign workers, which has been a solution for the developed countries of Europe, does not seem to be working for Albania.

The increase in the weight of the elderly may find the country unprepared, not only to cope with the pension scheme, but also to serve a generation that is dominating (The population of retirement age 65+ reached 473 thousand people according to the 2023 Census with 49% increase from the 2011 Census).

Reversing the population pyramid shown by Census 2023 is the biggest challenge for the country, for which we must be prepared and take measures as soon as possible.

Stopping the flight of Albanians and the policies for the return of the fugitives are the most urgent issues. The situation resembles a human organism, which does not stop bleeding, and to save life, quick and effective interventions are required by policy makers.

Above all, the restoration of the hope of the Albanians is required, but this apparently requires a much higher commitment than simply the term Rebirth of the governing facade, which apparently was not sufficient./ Monitor