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What the polls announce and why Basha should not rejoice
Lulzim Basha did not deeply lose the 2017 elections because he made an agreement with Edi Rama, but because he was complacent, he waited and believed more than he should in that pact. Although it made him the second most powerful political man in Albania, the agreement did not grant him immunity in the next elections, and even as it turned out, harmed him.
Under the drug of that complacency, Basha had compiled not only the list of MP candidates but also the campaign scheme. The latter was treated almost as a formality, something that should be done as an impetus of tradition, not an electoral-political need. The tour and the lack of strong clashes with the government almost meant, naively, that with the avoidance of Meta, politics became bipolar again and the place of the Renaissance would be taken by the new Republic.
In the absence of polls, or despite them, the Democrat chairman was content with the hallucinogens of expected power who turned out to be liars.
Having made this mistake of faith, recklessness, and chance, Basha is not forgiven for lying for the second time. To believe that the polls, hitherto proven to be credible by the IPR Group, that see him in pole position for power after April 25, is the good news he and his people expect.
As they prepare the ground for seductive perceptions of the opposition, dressing it with the imaginary power, polls remain projections, until the day it is voted on and the next day when the votes are counted.
The one of April 25, for the Democrats and especially for Basha, is a very big bet to trust the tab with 'two goals up' of the polls. Even more so when the government has in its hands more instruments of manipulation and subjugation, more benefits to share, and finances to distribute, than its opponents in opposition.
Thus, both the lists and Basha's campaign should be made as if the DP and the opposition are down in the polls and need to recover 2, 3, 4, or 10 missing points in the electoral battle. This mentality is even more urgent given the record of the last two elections: suspicions of influence (BILD interceptions and files 194 and 339) of the result of the first four years and low turnout in the 2019 elections.
The opposition, in order to exceed the threshold of manipulation (which the polls do not take into account), needs an extra percentage of votes.