11 mini-municipalities of the capital - litmus test for the opposition!

By Eduard Zaloshnja

For many reasons, the election results in the original 11 mini-municipalities of the capital can serve as a litmus test for the elections that are over and those that are to come. Some of the most important reasons are listed below:

· The problems observed by OSCE / ODIHR observers periodically in the Albanian elections have been localized in different provinces or in other municipalities / villages of Tirana district, but never in the capital (with the exception of 1996).

· The electoral result in the 11 original mini-municipalities of the capital has always been a political barometer of the next and the next elections, because the capital constitutes a demographic conglomerate of the provinces of Albania.

· Only 10 years ago, the election race in the capital ended with photo-finishes (where the American ambassador also rolled up his sleeves in the vote count…). In that race, PD, LSI, PDIU, etc. supported Basha for mayor, while PS, PSD, etc. supported Rama.

· Historically, in the 11 original mini-municipalities of the capital, the lowest percentage of invalid votes was registered (with the exception of 2019, when the opposition boycotted the local elections). In the elections of April 25, 2021, only 2.2% of the votes in the 11 original mini-municipalities of the capital turned out to be invalid (at the national level, 5.1% turned out to be invalid).

· Despite the changes in demographic movements in the 11 original mini-municipalities of the capital, the number of participants in the elections has not changed much over the last decade - about 253 thousand valid votes were in 2011; about 285 thousand were in 2021.

Taking into account the above factors, it is worth analyzing the results of April 25, 2021 for the 11 original mini-municipalities of the capital.

As everywhere in Albania, the DP had a significant increase in the electoral weight in the capital - it received 38.2% of the vote, from 28.2% it had received 4 years ago. But this 10-point increase came mainly at the expense of the SMI, which halved its electoral weight (as well as partly thanks to the PDIU, which merged with the PD lists this time). On the other hand, the SP received 49.2% of the vote (from 51.2% 4 years ago), because at its expense grew the small ally PSD.

However, if we make a comparison with the 2011 elections, when political parties were lined up in support of Rama or Basha the same as today, we note that the PS + PSD received 51.7% of the vote on April 25 and the PD + LSI 44.3% ( small parties in the middle received 4%).

Only in three mini-municipalities, PS + PSD failed to pass the 50 percent of valid votes (in mini-municipalities 8, 9 and 11), while the highest result was achieved in mini-municipality 1, with 55.5% of the vote. On the other hand, PD + LSI managed to pass the 50 percent only in the mini-municipality 8, with 51.5% of the votes.

The detailed analysis above is illustrated in the following graph and table, which should be carefully analyzed by anyone who wants to be the chairman of the Democratic Party on June 13…

Graphics 1

Table 1. Electoral weights in the 11 mini-municipalities of the capital on April 25