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Analysis: Will the new leader of Hezbollah seek negotiations with Israel?

Politiko 2024-10-30 14:41:28

The Lebanese armed group, Hezbollah, on October 28 named Naim Qassem as secretary general, choosing him from a small pool of candidates. Qassem, who had served as Hezbollah's deputy secretary-general since 1991, succeeds longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in a major Israeli airstrike on September 27. Nasrallah's expected successor, Hashem Safieddine, was also assassinated by Israel a week later, leaving the group with no choice but to appoint Qassem.

Hezbollah - which also has a political party represented in Lebanon's Parliament - is designated a terrorist organization by the United States, although the European Union has only its armed wing blacklisted. Qassem is often credited with leading Hezbollah's efforts to transform itself from merely a militant armed group into a dominant political force in Lebanon, as he has focused his writings primarily on the group's ideological and religious foundations rather than strategy. military.

The appointment of an experienced political figure could suggest that Hezbollah is preparing for talks with Israel to end the current conflict, although Israel has shown no sign of wanting to meet. Born in 1953 in the southern Lebanese town of Kfar Fila, Qassem joined Hezbollah in the early years of the group's founding in the 1980s. Although not a founding member, he quickly rose through the ranks of the group and was appointed deputy secretary to Abbas al-Musawi, who was then head of Hezbollah and one of the founders.

After Musawi's death in an Israeli operation a year after his appointment, Nasrallah was elected the new leader of Hezbollah, and Qassem retained his position. Like Nasrallah, Qassem also has very close ties with Tehran. Unlike his predecessor, however, his trips to Iran have not been secret. He is often photographed with Iranian officials and traveled to Tehran in July to attend the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian.

The United States designated Qassem a "designated global terrorist" in 2018 and subsequently imposed sanctions on him as part of a broader war against Hezbollah's financial network. Leading the group's political efforts, Qassem has been engaged in organizing Hezbollah's political campaigns since the group began participating in parliamentary elections in 1992.

Qassem has been instrumental in shaping Hezbollah's ideological and religious stance, often writing about the group's political and religious foundations. He published a book in 2005 titled "Hezbollah: The Inside Story," which aimed to provide an inside look at the group's founding and its goals, including the war against Israel.

Hezbollah has suffered severe blows in recent months as Israel continues to cripple its military capabilities and eliminate its leaders. Qassem is virtually Hezbollah's only known figure beyond Lebanon's borders. While Hezbollah's Shura Council did not have much choice in naming Nasrallah's successor, Qassem's appointment could also signal the group's willingness to end the conflict with Israel.

"By not choosing a military figure, but choosing Naim Qassem, Iran and Hezbollah are preparing for the end of the current war with Israel," Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East Institute at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of Washington, wrote in X. London.

"Hezbollah needs an experienced political mediator at the top to prepare the ground for political negotiations with its opponents," she added.

But Israel's Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, quickly ruled out diplomacy with the Iran-backed group, writing in X about Qassem's appointment: “ Temporary appointment. It won't last "./ REL