DW Analysis: Why is Croatia "frustrating" Vučić?

The ongoing student protests in Serbia have forced the Serbian authorities to use all possible propaganda materials in an attempt to stop the protests. Croatia also appears as one of the main actors in this war, and targets have also been directed against some representatives of the Serbian community there. After the diplomatic scandal caused by the Serbian ambassador to Croatia, Jelena Milić, who left the Christmas reception of the Serbian National Council (SNV) in Croatia, the regime's campaign also turned against Milorad Pupovac, the president of the SNV. He is criticized for "applause for youth and students", and "anti-Serbian texts in his newspaper".

"Woe to those who listen to Vucic"

Analysts in Belgrade point out that the relationship between Milorad Pupovac and Aleksandar Vučić cannot be compared to the relations they have, for example, with the leadership of Republika Srpska or with Serbs in Montenegro. Milorad Pupovac himself stated in an interview with DW that he had contacts with the Serbian president a year and a half ago. The director of the Center for Regionalization from Novi Sad, Aleksandar Popov, notes that “relations between the authorities in Serbia and the SNV have never been good, because Pupovac is the only Serbian leader in the region who is not under the influence of Belgrade.

Aleksandar Vučić, Popov adds, "cannot turn Pupovac into Milorad Dodik." Pupovac is not a political calculator and he did everything in a man's power to improve the position of the Serbian community in Croatia, so that the position would improve or at least not worsen. "Just look at how the Serbs in Kosovo who listened to the Serbian List are doing," Popov tells DW.

A well-known person from Belgrade?

The Serbian president thinks he can treat Serbs in Croatia the same way he treats Serbs in Kosovo, Montenegro and Republika Srpska, Naim Leo Beshiri, director of the Belgrade Institute for European Affairs, told DW. "The difference is big, because in Croatia there are certain institutions and Serbs in Croatia know how to use certain institutional mechanisms." What Vučić thinks about Croatia and Serbs in Croatia is also evident from the appointment of Jelena Milić as Serbia's ambassador to Croatia. She came to this post after several years of work in the SNS and without any diplomatic knowledge or experience," Beshiri told DW.

Naim Leo Beshiri believes that "Vučić has been trying to turn Pupovac into Dodik for a long time." I think this also has to do with who will be Pupovac's successor in Croatia. "It is in this context that the current campaign of the Serbian authorities against the leader of the SNV can be interpreted, and I think that Vučić will certainly try to create a new person who will obey the Serbian authorities in Belgrade."

Serbia's internal problems

Milorad Pupovac tells DW that everything that happened between the Serbian authorities and the SNV is related to two things: “One is how Serbian diplomacy works in Zagreb and the other is related to the internal situation in Serbia.” Pupovac recalls that “Serbia has been a place of protests for thirty years and that this is nothing unexpected.” Serbia is a very traumatized society,” says the SNV chairman.

"I think the Croatian government made a good move by not reacting to all the accusations coming from Serbia," notes Aleksandar Popov, adding that "the main problem is that Vučić cannot influence Pupovac. In Republika Srpska, the situation is different with Milorad Dodik and his people," says Popov.

Whose capital is Belgrade?

Naim Leo Beshiri believes that Pupovac "wisely drew attention to the fact that there is no freedom of speech and parliamentary debate in Serbia, so his reaction came at the award ceremony." On the other hand, Pupovac is the only Serbian leader in the region for whom his capital is Zagreb, while his country is Croatia, and this is something that Vučić cannot change," he emphasizes.

Milorad Pupovac also emphasizes "the importance of Serbia as a democratic and stable state." He tells DW that when it comes to relations between the two countries, the president of the Serbian National Council says that "we must continue to work on reducing bad relations and reducing the bad atmosphere in relations between the two countries."

Croatia frustrates Serbian President

However, this is easier said than done. The Serbian president used the student protests to attack Croatia and the students’ demands, which were presented as part of a conspiracy between Croatian secret services and traitors in Serbia. When we add to this Vučić’s constant comparisons with Croatia, from the economic to the military, it is clear that every crisis in Serbia reminds one of an old political slogan: “When times are tough – blame Croatia.”

Naim Leo Beshiri sees this ongoing attempt to compete with Croatia in the context of Vučić’s frustration, because Croatia, with its membership in NATO and the EU, has moved far ahead of Serbia. “If Croatia were to stagnate now and Serbia were to progress economically by 10% per year – which is practically impossible – Serbia would catch up with Croatia in 20 years. While it would catch up with Slovenia in 60 years. Vučić knows this and therefore has to constantly invent enemies and create cacophony in the country in order to remain in power,” Beshiri said.

This is rhetoric that Croatia is no longer responding to, emphasizes Aleksandar Popov, and concludes: The Serbian government has nevertheless decided that this is the most appropriate way to label someone. This distracts attention from the internal problems that they are creating themselves. It seems to me that in this sense, Belgrade could have preferred that Primorac had won the presidential elections in Croatia instead of Milanović, because when it comes to the Serbian Progressive Party and the HDZ, they are sister parties, which even support each other in times of crisis./DW