Risk map: Counties at risk from voter buyout and influence on May 11

A study by the Institute for Political Studies suggests that the districts of Elbasan, Durrës, Dibra, Lezha or Fier have a high risk of voter influence from factors related to corruption, organized crime and clientelistic ties in the May 11 elections.

The Institute for Political Studies published on Thursday the "2025 Electoral Risk Map: Hotspots and Informal Influences", a study that appeals to the risk of vote buying and voter influence in clientelistic forms in some districts, while the Diaspora vote remains unmonitored by these influences.

The study suggests that the parliamentary elections of May 11, 2025 also pose a high risk in some areas, just like the two previous parliamentary elections of 2017 and 2021.

"The municipalities of Elbasan and Durrës have the highest risk coefficient (87%), due to the combination of many elements there," the study states, where the criteria for assessing the risk are; "the existence of corruption at high levels, influential criminal groups, strong informal connections, the level of vote trafficking and the role of economically powerful individuals, as well as the tradition in the last 2-3 parliamentary and local elections."

For the same reasons, the municipalities of Dibër, Lezhë, Kurbin, Shkodër and Fier are also listed.

 "In some of these municipalities, there are areas where votes have been trafficked/diverted for years by individuals or informal groups with great political and financial influence," the report suggests.

Himara is also considered a high-risk area, but with other specifics, mainly related to the recent local elections.

"While small municipalities such as Shijak, Bulqiza, Kukës or Mati have in common the influence of informal or criminal groups, as well as influence peddling," the report specifies.

Meanwhile, the areas with the lowest electoral risk are considered mainly traditional areas with the same specifications as the 2015-2025 elections, such as; Përmeti, Maliqi, Konispoli, Finiqi, Dimali, Gramshi, Belshi, etc. These areas, according to the experts who drafted the report, do not have organized crime, do not have powerful political and economic individuals behind them, do not have great electoral weight and constitute homogeneous local units in composition and tradition.

The electoral risk map is based on indicators related to the tradition of elections in municipalities and electoral zones, the qualities of candidates for deputies, the role of criminal groups in the areas, the role of "strong" businessmen and individuals with influence in the area, the role of informal financing, clientelistic voting, vote trafficking, pre-electoral tensions, rivalry between parties and chances for rotation, etc.

ISP also sees a risk of clientelistic influences on citizens' votes in the campaign conducted by candidates on open lists. This technical change in the list, according to the study, has created two parallel campaigns: one between parties with a proportional system and one within the candidates of the same party with a majoritarian system.

"The need for mandates or personal survival (election/re-election) has massively restored informal connections (criminal connections, informal financing, the influence of individuals who control areas, the influence of oligarchs, etc.), "the report notes.

One issue raised by the study is the inability to monitor the Diaspora vote for these influences, while this is the first time that the practice of voting from abroad will be implemented in elections. According to the ISP, the risk of the diaspora vote remains high, especially in those parts of it controlled through a clientelistic or patronage system./BIRN