UN predicts halving of births in Albania in the next 3 decades

Over the last decade, Albania has been classified among the countries with drastic demographic developments on a global scale, led by high emigration rates, declining birth rates, population aging, etc.

The United Nations predicts that in the next 30 years the number of births in our country will be halved in the latest projections on global fertility trends during 2024-2054.

The UN classified Albania with two other countries, Puerto Rico and Jamaica, with the strongest decline in births globally by 2054.

According to internal data from INSTAT, around 22 thousand babies were born last year, but in the 2050s around 10-11 babies will be born per year. The reality of recent years has shown that Albania's demographic indicators have performed more negatively than even the most pessimistic projections for population performance.

 No one could have predicted that births in our country would drop by about 40 percent in the last decade alone. In 2014, 35,700 babies were born in our country, while in 2024 only a little more than 22 thousand or 37% less than in 2014.

The United Nations analyzed that births in Albania will experience a sharp decline in the coming years for two major reasons: First, low fertility rates among women of childbearing age and second, high levels of emigration among young people.

Total fertility rates have fallen steadily over the last half century, from an average total fertility rate of 4.8 births per woman in 1970 to 2.2 in 2024.

Women today are giving birth to one fewer child on average than in the 1990s, when the global rate was 3.3 children per woman. The decline is projected to continue until the end of the century, reaching 1.8 births per woman by 2100.

The UN notes that the projection of fertility rates so far into the future is subject to significant uncertainties. By 2024, the global total fertility rate was 2.2 births per woman, much lower than the value projected for the same year over a decade earlier in 2013, at 2.4 children per woman.

According to internal data from INSTAT, the synthetic fertility index fell to 1.21 children per woman in 2022 from 1.34 children in 2020 and 1.36 in 2019. In 2001, according to INSTAT, this indicator was 2.1, while in the 1970s it was over 5.

In the regions of Vlora and Korça, the fertility rate was less than one child per woman of reproductive age. The highest fertility rates are in the regions of Kukës, Dibra and Lezha.

Compared to Eurostat 2021 data, Albania is seen to have the lowest fertility rates in Europe, leaving behind only Spain (1.19) and Malta (1.13).

The fertility rate is below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman, meaning that a couple is failing to replace themselves.

Delaying the age of marriage, career goals and in many cases economic opportunities are causing Albanian women to give birth to fewer and fewer children./MONITOR