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Chinese President Xi Jinping's influence on Putin's recent decisions

Chinese President Xi Jinping's influence on Putin's recent decisions

Putin's former adviser, Andrei Illarionov, tells DW that Russian President Putin may have made his recent actions under the influence of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Deutsche Welle: What is your impression of Russian President Vladimir Putin's televised speech on September 21st?

Andrei Illarionov: We need to understand why he made that speech, why he decided on mobilization, on [so-called] "referendums" in the four occupied regions in Ukraine, why he again started threatening to use nuclear weapons. All these decisions were announced within the time frame of three days, from September 19 to 21. All these decisions are contrary to the policy that Putin has followed until now and contrary to his previously known plans.

For example, referendums were expected to be held either at the end of this year or next year. The Kremlin has ordered that they be held immediately, within a few days: from September 23 to 27. This is fraud even by Kremlin standards. This is fraud even by the standards of the so-called Crimean referendum in 2014. We need to find an explanation for all these decisions.

Do you think these decisions are a sign of panic in the Kremlin?

It does not appear that Ukraine's counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region is the cause of any change in Putin's decisions and thinking. I have a different feeling. All those decisions were announced in the span of three days, from September 19 to 21. It means that those decisions were taken by the Kremlin at least one or two days before that, that is, on September 17 and 18. What happened on those dates?

It appears that the most important event was Mr. Putin's return to Moscow from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand. It seems that Putin had some conversations there that forced him to make all those decisions.

The only person who can have such a conversation with Putin is President Xi. So Xi seems to have told Putin something that forced Putin to change his stance on war, to radically change his previous plans for "referendums," for mobilization, and for nuclear blackmail.

Can you guess what Xi said to Putin?

Ne nuk e dimë. Por bazuar në disa rrjedhje dhe në bazë të gjuhës trupore, nuk do të përjashtoja mundësinë që Xi t'i ketë sugjeruar partnerit të tij të vogël që t'i japë fund sa më shpejt luftës në Ukrainë  – të themi, përpara Kongresit Kombëtar të Partisë Komuniste Kineze në tetor - dhe jo të presë deri sa të humbë. Fakti që Rusia ka bërë luftë për shtatë muaj dhe nuk ka dalë fitimtare është problematik për Xi dhe e bën atë të duket i dobët në prag të eventit më të rëndësishëm të jetës së tij. Por Xi nuk mund t'ia lejojë vetes të duket i dobët.

Duke iu rikthyer fjalimit të Puthnit të mërkurën, çfarë do të thotë mobilizimi i pjesshëm në Rusi për rrjedhën e luftës dhe për vetë Rusinë? Mendoni se është dëshmi e dështimit të Rusisë së Putinit në këtë luftë?

Ky vendim është një shenjë e qartë e një ndryshimi rrënjësor të strategjisë që Putini ndjek prej disa muajsh. Përpara Samarkandit, Putini ishte gati të vazhdonte një luftë afatgjate me përshkallëszime – edhe për vite të tëra nëse ishte e nevojshme. Vendimet e ditëve të fundit nënkuptojnë se strategjia e tij ka ndryshuar rrënjësisht. Këto nuk janë shenja dobësie apo humbjeje; këto janë shenja të varësisë së tij nga Xi.

Sa ushtarë do të jetë në gjendje të mobilizojë, armatosë, furnizojë dhe vendosë Rusia në vijën e frontit në Ukrainë? Ministri rus i Mbrojtjes Sergei Shoigu po flet për 300,000, por ushtria ruse thuhet se ka mbi 20 milionë rezervistë.

Officially, Russia has mobilization reserves of 18 million. Only 10% of that is 1.8 million, so figures like 1 million, which have appeared in some media, or even the 300,000 announced by Shoigu, seem realistic. The mobilized will certainly not all be equipped with the most perfect, high-quality, modern weapons, but there are enough old weapons for millions of reservists, in case of mobilization.

There have been reports of protests in many Russian cities. More than 1300 people have been arrested by the police. Is there a chance that these protests will succeed and increase the standing of the Russian people?

I do not believe. Many people outside Russia continue to forget that this is a totalitarian regime. No totalitarian regime has been removed, destroyed or changed by peaceful protests. None in the history of mankind./ DW

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