
Flash News
Accident at "Shkalla e Tujanit", truck overturns in the middle of the road, driver injured
Vlora by-pass, work delays and cost increases
Milan are expected to give up on the transfer of Granit Xhaka
Inceneratori jashtë funksionit, përfshihet nga flakët fusha e mbetjeve në Elbasan
Accident on the Lezhë-Shëngjin axis, one injured

Kemal Dervis
The outcome of the US presidential election on November 3 will have significant consequences for America in terms of economic policy, racial justice, the judiciary, health care, and the overall quality of its democracy. But the international effects of elections can be just as far-reaching and lasting. In particular, can a victory for Democratic candidate Joe Biden prevent a dangerous confrontation of great power and usher in a new era of global cooperation?
If President Donald Trump is re-elected, he would not necessarily seek more confrontations abroad during his second term. On the contrary, he can become less aggressive, especially towards China, and pursue "economic deals" whenever possible.
In fact, the Trump administration's stance on "values" and human rights may cease altogether. After all, the president is completely satisfied with the autocrats and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo 's recent harsh criticism of China for human rights abuses were more electoral theater than evidence of a moral conviction.
A second-term Trump administration - like the first - would not try to project systematic notions of democracy and human rights around the world. Instead, it would pursue a purely transactional approach to diplomacy with allies and rivals, reckoning that America's vast domestic market and military-industrial capability, together with the external expansion of the dollar, would strengthen the power of its bilateral negotiators, even vis-.-vis China and the European Union. But even bilateral agreements can be effective in specific cases, Trump's negligence of alliances and disregard for multilateralism - a key source of U.S. strength for decades - has diminished American power and influence.
In fact, despite Donald Trump's nefarious efforts, the United States retains a considerable amount of soft power because most of the world views his presidency as a deviation that does not reflect America's "true" character. But if Trump is re-elected, that soft power would fall quickly. A purely transactional approach would further erode the already weakened multilateral system. The need for rules and standards will still increase.
A world of faded multilateralism is likely to crystallize into three rival spheres of influence - led by the US, China and the European Union - each with its own rules and standards. The EU may have enough weight to form its third pole, especially if it can attract some average countries that have the same opinion in its sphere. If the EU lacked the cohesion to do so, the world would become bipolar, because the weight and gravitational pull of the US and China are much larger in magnitude than those of any other potential rival.
Such a world would be inefficient, with different rules and standards segmenting markets. Moreover, reaching burden-sharing agreements to secure global public goods such as climate mitigation would be very difficult. It would also be a dangerous world: despite their still considerable interdependence, China and the US could head into a hot-tempered technological war, due to miscalculations on both sides - including with new cyber weapons.
How can the future change if Biden wins?
Lidhur me marrëdhëniet SHBA-Kinë, jo shumë gjëra do të ndryshonin në një periudhë të afërt. Madje, fërkimet bilaterale mund të rriten, sepse një administratë Biden do ta ngrinte çështjen e të drejtave të njeriut në një mënyrë më të qëndrueshme. Tensionet aktuale mbi tregtinë, politikat industriale dhe teknologjinë do të vazhdonin dhe një rivalitet i fortë kino-amerikan do të mbetej një tipar i sistemit ndërkombëtar.
Por një administratë Biden mund të ndryshojë rrënjësisht marrëdhëniet aktuale të Amerikës me aleatët e saj tradicionalë – veçanërisht Europën – si dhe qasjen e saj ndaj multilateralizmit. Ndjekja me forcë e një strategjie të tillë mund të parandalojë fragmentizimin joefikas dhe të rrezikshëm të rendit ndërkombëtar.
Me Biden në Shtëpinë e Bardhë, SHBA-ja, Europa dhe shumë vende afrikane, amerikano latine dhe aziatike mund të punojnë së bashku për të vendosur rregulla dhe standarde të përbashkëta që pasqyrojnë vlera thelbësisht të ngjashme, megjithëse kompromise të vështira do të ishin të nevojshme në fusha të tilla si menaxhimi i të dhënave dhe taksimi digjital. SHBA-ja padyshim që do të angazhohej përsëri me Organizatën Botërore të Tregtisë dhe do të mbështete një sistem tregtar global të bazuar në rregulla, ndërsa kërkon gjithashtu reformat institucionale aq të nevojshme.
Amerika nën drejtimin e Biden-it gjithashtu do të mbetej anëtare e Organizatës Botërore të Shëndetësisë dhe do të punonte për parandalimin e pandemisë në një kuadër shumëpalësh. Po kështu, ajo do t’i bashkohej përsëri marrëveshjes së klimës të Parisit 2015 dhe do të angazhohej për qëllime serioze përsa i takon zbutjes së efekteve klimatike.
Nuk është e sigurt nëse një administratë Biden do të ndiqte një axhendë të tillë për të sjellë një multilateralizëm të ri në të cilin SHBA-ja ishte një forcë udhëheqëse dhe vendimtare, por jo më një hegjemon. Megjithëse interesat e ndryshme kombëtare do të vazhdonin dhe puna për kompromise do të ishte e vështirë, vlerat themelore të ndara dhe interesi i tyre do të mund të çonin në zgjidhje të dakorduara.
Në mënyrë thelbësore, një ringjallje e suksesshme e multilateralizmit mund ta bëjë Kinën të dëshirojë të jetë pjesë e sistemit të rinovuar ndërkombëtar. Megjithëse lidershipi kinez ka deklaruar publikisht angazhimin e tij ndaj multilateralizmit global, në praktikë ai ka ndjekur një strategji të pafrenuar pushteti të fortë, i cili mund të jetë opsioni më i mirë i Kinës nëse Trump fiton përsëri.
Por, pavarësisht nga madhësia e saj, Kina nuk mund të përballojë të qëndrojë e vetme në kundërshtim me pjesën më të madhe të botës, nëse BE-ja dhe një SHBA e udhëhequr nga Biden ndjekin rregullat dhe standardet e dakorduara në bashkëpunim me shumë vende të tjera. As Kina nuk mund të bindte shumë vende të Azisë Lindore që të rreshtohen pranë saj në një skenar të tillë.
A joint U.S. effort to renew multilateralism could reverse the trend toward a world of divisions of great powers. In an unprecedented time of global challenges, such an outcome would benefit everyone, including China. This could be as important as any internal difference between a Trump-Biden victory.
Although the main idea is that a dangerously divided world is inevitable, a decisive American commitment to multilateralism can nevertheless lead to a much better and more secure future. If Biden wins on November 3, internationally minded Democrats in all branches of government will need to think hard and have the courage to obey.
*Project Syndicate. Can Biden Save the World?
Translation: Reporter.al
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