Historic Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement, a "real opportunity" for peace

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union over three decades ago, rival neighbors in the South Caucasus, Armenia and Azerbaijan, have fought two wars that have killed tens of thousands of people and displaced hundreds of thousands more.

Now, their leaders appear to be preparing to sign a peace treaty aimed at ending hostilities over the Armenian-populated region of Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh, which Baku recaptured from Armenian separatists in September 2023 after a swift offensive.

"This announcement signals a real opportunity to finalize and sign the long-awaited bilateral treaty," said Richard Giragosian, head of the Center for Regional Studies, an independent think tank in Yerevan.

Baku and Yerevan announced last week that they have finalized the text of the historic peace agreement, although it still remains unclear when the leaders of the two states will sign it.

The agreement is being seen as a major achievement in ending the grueling conflict in the region where the United States, Russia, the European Union, Turkey and Iran are vying for influence.

Under the agreement, the two neighbors will establish formal relations, with Yerevan recognizing Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Karabakh, having resisted doing so since 1991.

The two sides are said to have agreed on the sensitive issue of removing a reference from Armenia's Constitution to its 1991 declaration of independence, which supports Yerevan's territorial claims over the Karabakh region.

But amending the Armenian Constitution would require holding a national referendum that could potentially delay the conclusion of the agreement.

Giragosian argued that absent any last-minute disagreements, the agreement “offers an opportunity to overcome the diplomatic impasse between Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

He said that the constitutional changes cannot be implemented before June next year.

Some analysts have seen the issue as a potential stumbling block. Azerbaijani political analyst Rauf Mirgadirov said the deadline is likely to prevent a peace agreement from materializing quickly.

"If the document does not guarantee mutual recognition of territorial integrity, then it is not a real peace agreement, no matter what it is called," Mirgadirov said.

He said the comprehensive peace agreement "requires unconditional recognition of each other's territorial integrity."

The news of the agreement has been welcomed with optimism by the international community.

Washington praised Baku and Yerevan for concluding talks on "a historic peace treaty."

"This is an opportunity for both countries to open a new chapter in the decades-long conflict, in line with President [Donald] Trump's vision for a more peaceful world," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement on March 14.

French President Emmanuel Macron said this development "should pave the way for a lasting peace in the South Caucasus."

European Council President Antonio Costa called the agreement "a decisive step towards the full normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the opening up of the region."

In Yerevan and Baku, residents have expressed mixed feelings about the agreement, expressing distrust and skepticism that cloud their hopes for peace and a new beginning.

“It won’t change anything,” said a man in Yerevan, who spoke to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Armenian Service but did not want to be identified. “What agreement has ever been more than just words on paper? Why would this be any different?”

"If there is peace there, then that is only good for the people," said another woman in Yerevan, who also asked not to be identified. "There will be no war. It will be better."

An elderly woman in Baku said she would be very happy if the agreement produces lasting peace.

"Let the mothers not be afraid, let the children not be afraid," she told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Azerbaijani Service.

Meanwhile, a man in Baku said that Azerbaijanis have little faith in Armenia's commitment to a peace agreement.

"We hope for the best, but it's very difficult," he said./ REL