Concern grows over deepening cooperation between Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang and Tehran

Washington's most dangerous adversaries are deepening cooperation among themselves, but analysts from American intelligence agencies believe that for now, they have failed to form a close alliance that can more effectively confront the United States.

Concerns from the United States and its allies about growing cooperation between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea have been steadily growing since Moscow launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine in February 2022. The concerns are based on intelligence sources indicating that Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang are assisting Russia with technology, missiles, drones, and even troops in the war against Ukraine.

The former commander of US forces in the Indo-Pacific earlier this year even called the growing ties between four enemy countries of the United States a "naval axis of evil."

However, American intelligence officials believe that the axis is, in some way, blocked by its own shortcomings.

"They are not acting as a bloc," said Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, speaking Thursday in Washington at a discussion hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations.

"We don't see them as some kind of quadripartite alliance," she said. "We don't see them as allies, operating in a similar way to NATO countries. They don't have that level of military interaction and cooperation."

However, they see the axis as a concern on several fronts.

Ms Haines said that increased cooperation between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea has contributed to a further erosion of international norms around weapons of mass destruction.

In areas where Russia and China were once willing to cooperate with the United States and the West, such as stopping the spread of nuclear weapons, Moscow and Beijing now seem more inclined to grant Iran and North Korea additional leeway.

"This is happening largely because Russia is now to some extent dependent on North Korea and Iran for advanced weapons, ammunition and other means for the war with Ukraine," Ms. Haines said.

"They are less likely to back down," she said. "And certainly, we have observed the degree to which they actually, for example, accept North Korea as a nuclear power."

Haines said increased cooperation between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea has helped all four countries evade Western sanctions.

She said there are even some signals that Russia is willing to take actions that would allow Beijing to surpass the United States in some critical areas.

"They are willing to potentially help China more, by giving them technology that could actually make China advance faster in other areas that are of concern to us," Ms. Haines said.

Washington's NATO allies have issued similar warnings in recent months, with several NATO officials telling VOA that the axis of these countries has already laid the foundations for a new global arms race.

Russia's sabotage

There are also ongoing concerns about the willingness of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea to engage in so-called covert activity.

A declassified report by US intelligence agencies, published in July, warned that in the next five to six years "there are likely to be more frequent, diverse and damaging acts of blackmail, particularly by China, Iran, Russia and North Korea, under what amounts to armed conflict but outside the bounds of historically legitimate state action."

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said Thursday that these types of activities by Russia, including sabotage efforts in Europe, have "increased at all levels."

"Russia has just invested money, personnel, tremendous effort in this area and will continue to do so," she said. "While we have made improvements in preventing some of this activity, we are not at the point where we feel comfortable."

Change of administration in the US

US intelligence analysts are closely watching how other countries are behaving as Washington prepares for President-elect Donald Trump to take office in January.

"There are several actors who are trying to prepare for new positions during the next administration," Ms. Haines said.

She said that intelligence agencies are preparing reports on these activities, which they will share with the incoming Trump administration, and are also closely monitoring the possibility of escalating tensions from some countries during the transition period.

"For example, North Korea typically engages in some provocative actions during periods of power transition," Ms. Haines said. "That's one of the classic things that we're constantly watching."/ VOA