Albania, with the largest drop in fertility globally until 2054

High emigration and population aging will lead Albania's population to decline without return in all scenarios.

The United Nations in the new projections "Review of the World Population Outlook 2024" ranked Albania as the country with the strongest decline in fertility rates for women by about 15% until 2054 in the global ranking. (see the chart below).

After Albania, the countries that will have a high birth rate drop will be Armenia, Moldova, Montenegro, etc.

The UN notes that the fertility rate, or the average number of live births per woman over a lifetime, has fallen significantly over the past decades in many countries. Currently, the global fertility rate is 2.25 live births per woman, one less child than a generation ago. In Albania, the fertility rate per woman is currently less than 1.2 children, far below the replacement rate.

In most societies, children and the elderly consume more on average than they produce.

The UN advises that in almost all countries and areas with populations that have already reached their peak population size, the window of opportunity for accelerated economic growth associated with a youthful population has closed. However, even in countries where the share of the working-age population (between 20 and 64 years old) is shrinking, there are ways to boost economic growth.

One of the strategies that the UN recommends is that countries with declining populations should become inclusive, bringing into the formal labor market groups that have traditionally been excluded, such as women, the elderly and people with disabilities.

Another approach that is recommended is to increase employee productivity by investing in human capital formation and continuous training, using technology, including robotics, automation and artificial intelligence (AI). Immigration (inflows of immigrants) can also help alleviate labor shortages associated with aging populations, at least in the short term.

International migration cannot compensate for population decline or population aging in the long term, but it should not be seen as a "solution" to what is ultimately a universal and irreversible process: the demographic transition.

In countries where fertility rates are already below replacement, emigration of people of reproductive age may contribute to further population decline. In the 62 percent of countries and areas in the group that already experience low fertility rates, immigration is likely to contribute to further population declines between now and 2054. This group of countries also includes Albania.

Earlier, the UN, in the new projections for the progress of the world's population until 2054, refers that Albania ranks among the countries with the largest population decline between 2024-2054 in the global ranking.

The report mentions that the group of countries that includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithuania, Puerto Rico and Moldova will face a population decline of 14% in the next 30 years. These countries will have the highest global rates of population decline./ MONITOR