Why is Russia hesitant to help Iran in its conflict with Israel?

Since Israel launched its latest attacks on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been in contact with world leaders regarding the conflict.

Shortly after Israel's attacks began last Friday, Putin spoke with both Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Kremlin said.

In a statement on the Kremlin website, the Russian leader "expressed his condolences to the leadership and people of Iran for the numerous human casualties" and "stressed that Russia condemns Israel's actions, which were carried out in violation of the UN Charter and international law."

The next day, Putin again condemned Israel's operation during a phone call with US President Donald Trump, a staunch supporter of Netanyahu.

However, despite Russia's deepening alliance with Iran, the Kremlin is unlikely to offer military assistance to its strategic partner.

Moscow's golden deal with Tehran

Given the economic ties between Russia and Iran, Putin's rebuke of Israel for attacking the Islamic Republic comes as no surprise.

Iran has long been a close partner of Russia, not least because Western democracies have imposed harsh sanctions on both countries. Iran also recently joined the BRICS, a group of non-Western emerging economies that Russia helped establish.

Their relationship became even closer after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Western allies accused Iran of supplying Russia with military drones, which were eventually used to attack Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. According to media reports, Moscow may have paid for the drones with at least 1.8 tons of gold bullion, worth about $104 million, transferred to the Iranian company Sahara Thunder. Iran may also have asked Russia to help it carry out its nuclear program.

Analysts believe that Moscow would not want to lose such a reliable partner.

"The Kremlin is acting according to an old Quranic principle: 'Fight and fight, but do not trespass,'" Ruslan Suleymanov, a Middle East analyst based in Cairo, Egypt, tells DW. "In other words, Moscow, which has its own interests and presence in the Middle East, would prefer to avoid any kind of uncontrollable chaos in the region."

Why Russian military aid to Iran is impossible

Following the launch of Israel's attacks on Iran, the Iranian parliament ratified the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty with Russia. The agreement was initially signed by the presidents of the two countries in January and was approved by the Russian parliament two months ago.

Despite its ambitious name, the treaty fails to create a mutual defense pact. It does not oblige either side to provide military assistance in the event of an attack. Instead, it simply commits both sides to refrain from aiding their adversaries.

Middle East analyst Marianna Belenkaya, who fled Russia after the outbreak of war in Ukraine and now resides in Israel, believes that Moscow is highly unlikely to offer Iran any direct military support, at least not in any official or public capacity.

"There is no need, especially since it is trying to restore or improve relations with Washington, although a behind-the-scenes involvement cannot be completely ruled out," Belenkaya reckons./ DW