The Guardian: Why the fall of the Iranian regime would be a serious blow to Russia

When foreign policy officials from Russia and Iran gathered in Moscow for the conference “Russian-Iranian Cooperation in a Changing World,” no one expected that the title would be so topical and challenging.

At the table near the Kremlin, they faced a new reality: the Iranian regime, a key ally of Moscow, is facing its greatest threat in decades.

At a time when Israel and former US President Donald Trump are demanding “unconditional surrender” from Tehran, Moscow is expressing concern about Iran’s fate, while openly acknowledging its limitations in influencing developments on the ground. Experts on Russian-Iranian relations, such as Nikita Smagin, emphasize that Russia is not ready to militarily defend Iran, not wanting to enter into conflict with Israel or the United States.

This approach reflects a cold political logic: Moscow is interested in focusing on the war in Ukraine, avoiding direct involvement in a conflict that could lead to regime change in Tehran. A source close to the Russian Foreign Ministry emphasizes that the Kremlin will not arm Iran or get involved in the conflict, doing everything to encourage the US to return to diplomacy, to preserve relations with the American administration and to avoid a negative turn in the American position towards Ukraine.

However, an Israeli military campaign, supported by the US, that would destroy Iranian economic and military infrastructure would be a major strategic loss for Moscow, more severe than the one it suffered with the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

In fact, since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Iran has been an important partner for Russia, supplying it with combat drones and helping to establish a drone factory in the Ural Mountains. Putin has even signed a strategic treaty with Iran for military cooperation and intelligence sharing, however the agreement does not include a clause for mutual military defense.

While Iran has long sought defense systems and fighter jets from Russia, these requests have remained unfulfilled. Due to Moscow's involvement in Ukraine and growing relations with regional actors such as Saudi Arabia, Russia has shown no haste in supporting Iran, especially after strikes on Hezbollah, one of Tehran's key allies.

On the other hand, Moscow has reduced its dependence on Iranian military support by developing its own technologies for mass production of drones.

Although the Israeli attacks are causing tensions, some in Moscow are optimistic about rising oil prices, which are reaching their highest levels in four months, which provides an economic benefit at a time when the war budget is being hurt by falling global energy prices.

In this context, Trump has returned to the spotlight with his focus on the Middle East, leaving Ukraine in the shadows. Russian expert Ruslan Pukhov predicts that this situation will hurt Ukraine the most, distracting global attention and directing American military aid more towards Israel.

Although Russia may benefit from this situation in the short term, the long-term prospects look uncertain. The defeat of the Iranian regime would be a serious strategic and reputational blow to Moscow, jeopardizing its billions in investments in energy and infrastructure projects in Iran.

Unlike other allies with whom Russia has historical and cultural ties, its relationship with Iran is built on shared hostility toward the West and the imposition of sanctions. Experts warn that if the regime in Tehran falls, Russia will have serious difficulties maintaining its position and investments.

In a scenario where the Middle East is dominated by US-backed powers, Russia would suffer a major strategic and political loss.

Essentially, Russia is carefully balancing support for its Iranian ally and the need to avoid worsening relations with the US, while tensions in the Middle East are increasing the risk to Moscow's geopolitical ambitions.