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How many votes are needed for a deputy in the May 11 elections?

Politiko 2025-04-09 08:29:21

Theoretically, the 140 members of the Albanian Parliament represent the political body, which, in the May 11 elections, consists of 3.7 million voters. This is only theoretically, because a significant portion has been in emigration, many for decades, and consequently are part of the political body only nominally.

In the 2021 elections, when the number of registered voters was 3.59 million, turnout was 46% and, on average, approximately 12,000 voters elected one MP. Taking into account that some votes were invalid, and some went to small parties and independent candidates who did not produce mandates, the four parties that received mandates received an average of 11,000 votes per mandate.

The D-Hondt formula of higher averages is known to favor the largest party. Consequently, at the national level, the Socialist Party won each of its 74 mandates for every 10,400 votes. The Democratic Party won each of its 59 mandates for approximately 10,600 votes while the Social Democratic Party won three mandates with an average of 11,800 votes. The Socialist Movement for Integration, today the Freedom Party, won only four mandates despite collecting 108 thousand votes at the national level, with an average of 27 thousand votes per mandate.

The number of votes needed for a mandate in each district in the May 11 elections will depend on turnout, which is unpredictable. Albania undergoes strong demographic changes every year, and the 2023 Census found Albania to have approximately half a million fewer people than the 2011 Census, suggesting an annual decline in the resident population of about 40,000 and an annual decline in the voting population of about 30,000.

This means that between the 2021 and 2025 elections, around 120,000 voters may have left. But this is impossible to know with certainty because, although it is certain that between the Census and the Census, there was a population decline, we cannot know whether this population decline occurred uniformly throughout the entire period or whether there were years when the decline was stronger and other years when it was less.

In these elections, turnout is also expected to be affected by the approximately 246,000 Albanians who have registered to vote by mail. If all of these people vote, turnout will likely be higher than in 2021 and consequently, the number of votes needed to win the last term will be higher.

Latest mandates by districts

The D-Hond formula divides the number of votes each party has received, first by 1, then by 2, and so on, until the number of seats to be divided runs out. The party with the highest quotient from the division receives the seat. Consequently, what is being discussed, and which is decisive for the overall outcome of the elections, is the so-called last seat. This is also the seat that is practically aimed at by all small parties, especially in Tirana.

The last mandate is allocated to each district depending on the turnout. In the 2021 elections, the turnout in Tirana was particularly high, 53% compared to the national average of 46%. This means that the last mandate in Tirana was won by 12 thousand votes while, in Dibër, the last mandate was won by 7255 votes. The other districts are between these two figures as shown in the graph. In Shkodër, the Social Democratic Party managed to grab two mandates with a little more than 16 thousand votes.

Burnt votes help the greats

The data from the 2021 elections suggests that many key mandates for the majority were won thanks to “burnt votes”, i.e. votes won by small parties, mainly LSI. In the Durrës and Berat districts, LSI lost a mandate by only a few dozen votes. Consequently, the division of the main opposition into four competing coalitions, Berisha-Meta, Shehi-Alibeaj, Shehaj’s Opportunity Party and Basha’s Euroatlantic Party, suggests that in many districts there will be many votes that will not be able to produce a mandate. The mandates lost by these parties will fall into the lap of the political force that obtains a simple majority in each district./ BIRN