Is BiH losing control over its armed forces?

Police agencies in BiH are powerless to execute arrest warrants for RS leaders. Arrests could spark conflict, but this raises questions about the capacity of these institutions.

"I believe that the agencies are still doing their job ," said the head of diplomacy Elmedin Konakovic. But after just a few days it became clear that not only are the police agencies unable to implement the orders of the Court of BiH, but the state no longer has any authority over the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Defense Minister Zukan Helez issued an order banning the presence of RS President Milorad Dodik, RS National Assembly Speaker Nenad Stevandic and entity Prime Minister Radovan Višković at the anniversary celebration of the Third Infantry Regiment of Republika Srpska, which has been an integral part of the Armed Forces of BiH since 2006. But they attended the ceremony at the Kozara barracks in Banja Luka on May 12.

"What does the army have to do with the courts and what does the army have to do with prosecutors in the civilian sector? There is nothing ," Dodik said at the anniversary celebration, emphasizing that the army has its own mandate and that it knows who gives orders and how.

"BiH is in a state of coup d'état because it cannot implement decisions on the territory of the entire state," says Sarajevo-based political analyst Enver Kazaz, noting that the problem is that no one wants to admit this publicly. But that every subsequent problem builds on the existing one, which only deepens the crisis.

"Only naive politicians who maintain the status quo and see an opportunity not to take any serious action can hide this truth," says Kazaz, emphasizing that even the European bureaucracy is incapable of seeing the real situation on the ground.

Kazaz adds that the situation in the Kozara barracks shows that Dodik has all institutions in the territory of Republika Srpska under control. "The state practically functions in half of its territory. While in RS it is completely suspended," says Kazaz, with whom a large number of analysts agree.

While Banja Luka is happy with this situation, criminal charges are coming from Sarajevo against those who enabled the presence of the RS leadership within the Armed Forces of BiH, for whom the Court of BiH has issued an arrest warrant for coup d'état.

"All those who violated the law will be held criminally responsible. I will personally file criminal charges and investigate everything. This is not the end ," Helez is categorical.

Although the powers of the Ministry of Defense are very limited, given that most of the actual decision-making is in the hands of the Presidency of BiH, which, due to its structure, can block any decision, in this case the powers are in the hands of Helez. Based on the Law on Defense and the Law on the Armed Forces of BiH, the Ministry of Defense has jurisdiction over access to military facilities, and officials are obliged to act according to the lawful orders and decisions of the Ministry.

Decade without fundamental changes

RS Vice President Qamil Durakovic has already filed criminal charges with the BiH Prosecutor's Office against Deputy Minister of Defense Aleksandar Goganovic and Chief of the Joint Staff of the BiH Armed Forces, General Gojko Knezevic, for abuse of office and official authority, failure to perform official duty, and allowing fugitives to enter military facilities of the BiH Armed Forces.

Whether BiH functions throughout its territory and whether a review of sovereignty is expected in such conditions is a complex issue, says Mladen Bubonjic. "Formally sovereign, essentially disordered, sometimes the impression is created that the state exists only on paper. Some want it to be maximally decentralized, at the level of a federal structure, others would like it to be unified, unitary. It has been like this for decades and nothing is changing in essence," says Bubonjic.

Brussels authorities warn of non-fulfillment of conditions on the path to the EU. The President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, visited BiH these days. He met with members of the BiH Presidency and visited EUFOR forces as part of the Altea mission.

He reiterates that the EU remains committed to BiH's European future. But he also warns: " I am in Sarajevo to convey this message of continued engagement, but also concern about recent developments in Republika Srpska. Secessionist rhetoric and actions directed against territorial integrity, sovereignty and constitutional order are contrary to Bosnia and Herzegovina's European path."

Conflicting reactions

He said that BiH needs to adopt two laws in the field of justice, appoint a chief negotiator and adopt a reform agenda. But the three members of the BiH Presidency interpreted his messages differently.

Serbian representative Zheljka Cvijanovic claims that no one in RS is attacking the territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina and that any reaction is a consequence of High Representative Schmidt's decisions. While Bosniak member Denis Becirovic stressed the risk of a greater attack on the constitutional order coming from RS.

"For the first time since 1995 there is a serious risk of an armed conflict between the legal state institutions of BiH and elements in this entity," he said. While Croatian member Zeljko Komsic thanked the EU for its support in BiH's transition from the Dayton to the Brussels phase./ DW