48% of voters live abroad; The fate of the elections was in the hands of pensioners

Nearly half of the electorate (47.7%) is reported to live abroad, creating a large gap between the formal voter list and the resident population that actually receives public services.

On the one hand, the Civil Status Registry counts 3.71 million citizens with the right to vote, according to official data from the CEC, and on the other hand, the 2023 census counted only 1.94 million resident Albanians over 18 years old living in the country. The difference of 1.77 million people shows that 48% of the voter list lives outside Albania.

The gap between Albanians with the right to vote and the actual population indicates drastic changes in the country's demographics, also affecting the electoral dynamics.

Considering the latest CEC data that 42.2% of voters participated in the elections, this translates into over 1.56 million Albanians having exercised their right to vote. The number of participants is 80.6% of the resident population with the right to vote in Albania and 42.2% of the total Albanians with the right to vote.

As the number of voters on the lists increases, the number of participants in the elections is decreasing, contributing to the increase in fictitious expenses to manage the election process in the country.

The state prints sheets, distributes funds, and opens centers for a list of 1.8 million people who are physically absent. The administrative and material costs are almost double the real need.

One in three voters over 60

Considering the 2023 census data, more than one in three residents with voting rights is over 60 years old. The population over 60 years old was 32.4 percent of the voting population. In the future, this group of voters will exert more pressure on pension policies, health and long-term care.

The economically active electorate (30-60 years old) accounted for half of the voters (49%) living in the country.

The 18-29 age group accounted for only 17.8% of the voting population and remains in the minority, even though political discourse often addresses the “youth vote.”

Without an updated registry and clear voting mechanisms for the diaspora, official statistics continue to produce arithmetical frauds that affect budgeting, social policies, and the very legitimacy of electoral processes.

Considering that young people have only participated in 35 percent of the voting in the past, it is expected that the youth vote will constitute about 6% of the total votes this year.

A 61-year-old has almost 3.5 times more electoral weight than a 22-year-old, causing parties to direct fewer electoral resources towards young people.

Last year's polls showed that about 54% of young people are not interested in politics.

So every lek spent on pensioners is politically more effective than one lek on youth policies.

This year, about 191,000 Albanians abroad voted for the first time by mail on May 11, out of a total of 245,000 who were registered. If diaspora registration is expanded, the weight of young people could increase.

With only 17.8% of voters, young people are small in electoral mathematics. This explains why the 2025 programs look more like a “pension + bonus” scheme than a “vision 2035”./ B.Hoxha