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US intelligence warned of a possible clash in Gaza days before the attack

Politiko 2023-10-13 19:53:49

US intelligence warned of a possible clash in Gaza days before the attack

US intelligence has warned the Biden administration of a growing risk of Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the weeks before Saturday's attack in southern Israel, according to sources familiar with the intelligence.

According to CNN, an update from September 28 warned, based on multiple intelligence streams, that the Hamas terrorist group was poised to escalate rocket attacks across the border. An October 5 CIA cable warned broadly of the possibility of increased violence by Hamas. Then, on October 6, the day before the attack, US officials circulated reports from Israel indicating unusual activity by Hamas – indications that are now clear: an attack was imminent.

None of the US assessments provided any tactical details or indication of the overwhelming scope, scale and sheer brutality of the operation Hamas carried out on October 7, the sources said. It is unclear whether any of these US assessments have been shared with Israel, which provides much of the intelligence on which the US bases its reports.

"The problem is that none of this is new," said one of the sources familiar with the intelligence. "This is something that has historically been the norm between Hamas and Israel. I think what happened is that everybody saw these reports and said, 'Yeah sure. But we know what that will look like.”

But the assessments were one of a wave of high-level warnings issued to the Biden administration by its intelligence community and Middle Eastern allies over the past year, raising questions about whether the US and Israel were properly attuned to the risk.

A senior official from an Arab country in the region said the country repeatedly raised concerns with US and Israeli officials that Palestinian anger was reaching a dangerous level. "But they never listened whenever we warned them," the official said.

 

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