UN chart, Albania's population will "flatten" just like in the 1960s

At the beginning of the 1960s, the population of Albania was about 1.2 million inhabitants. In the early 1990s, the country's population almost tripled, reaching 3.3 million.

After the 1990s, the rapid developments that took place in the country also brought great demographic changes. The population began to decline rapidly, influenced first by the high level of immigration that peaked in the first decade of the transition and then by the new lifestyle, with lower birth rates and smaller families.

At the end of 2021, the population of Albania is estimated to be 2.8 million inhabitants, although this is only an estimate, since the last Census was carried out in 2010, while the new one is expected to take place this year.

The United Nations (UN) predicts that the number of inhabitants living in Albania will continue to shrink rapidly in the coming years.

According to UN forecasts, by 2050 the population of Albania is expected to decrease to 2.5 million inhabitants and by 2100 it will shrink to 1.1 million inhabitants, thus reaching the levels of the 1960s (see graph).

Other data processed by Visual Capitalist show that Albania's population is expected to shrink by 15.8% by 2050, according to the report, ranking tenth, after Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Moldova and Japan.

The decline in the birth rate and continuous immigration are the two reasons that are influencing the population reduction. According to the UN, about 40% of Albania's population already lives abroad. Meanwhile, the cycle of immigration has been revitalized in recent years, including families, the educated and especially young people. Even Covid-19 has increased mortality in 2020-2021.

According to INSTAT, the population of Albania on January 1, 2022 is 2,793,592 inhabitants, suffering a decrease of 1.3%, compared to January 1, 2021. This is the fifth consecutive year with a decrease in the number of inhabitants.

During the year 2021, the natural increase of the population (birth-death) was -3,296 inhabitants, marking for the first time a negative natural increase.

During 2021, a significant increase in emigration was also observed, while the number of returnees remains low. INSTAT reported that the number of immigrants in 2021 was 9,195 people and the number of immigrants was 42,048 people. The number of emigrants, according to INSTAT charts, was the highest since 2019 and 2014.

Edhe normat e lindshmërisë (që shpreh numrin e fëmijëve që mund të bëjë një grua gjatë jetës së saj) po bien me ritme të shpejta vit pas viti, duke sinjalizuar rënie pa kthim të popullsisë. Norma e lindshmëria ka zbritur në rreth 1.3 lindje për një grua (poshtë normës së zëvendësimit), duke rënë ndjeshëm nga 6 në vitet 1960 dhe mbi 2 në fillim të viteve 90, sipas INSTAT.

Rënia e lindshmërisë poshtë normës së zëvendësimit të popullsisë sinjalizon rënien e popullsisë gjatë dekadave dhe plakjen e shpejtë. Kontinenti për ketë arsye po vuan plotësimin e nevojave të tregut të punës. Kërkesa për punë e nxitur nga faktori demografik do të krijojë kushtet për një rrjedhë të sigurt emigracioni edhe nga vendet në zhvillim të tilla si Shqipëria.

Also affected by the high rates of immigration, Albania's population has entered a rapid aging process, turning into a major problem for the sustainable economic development of the country./Monitor