Analysis: Israel's attack on Iran, ignition of conflict in the Middle East?

To call the Middle East like a barrel of gunpowder seems to be a little. It was in this region that Israel under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now threw an explosive spark. With the large-scale attack on 100 targets in Iran, justified as a "preemptive strike" against the possible development of Iranian nuclear weapons. Israel's attacks, including on residential areas in Tehran, according to Prime Minister Netanyahu will continue for several more days.

It is difficult to predict the consequences

The consequences in the region and beyond are unpredictable. Some developments, however, are already being conlined: The US-mediated talks launched in Oman on the Iranian nuclear program were canceled by the Iranian side. Israel's attack followed two days before the next round of talks.

US President Donald Trump had asked the Israeli government not to obstruct the talks with any attack. And just before Israeli missiles hit Tehran, Trump posted the announcement that he has hope for the continuation of the talks. That Netanyahu does not consider talks on the nuclear program, this is also what the murder of Ali Shamchani during the attacks speaks of. Shamchani was hired by religious leader Ali Chamenei as head of the committee for talks with the US on the nuclear program.

Can Iran attack US targets?

Among the open questions is whether Iran will also target US targets in retaliatory strikes. The US is considered Israel's most important military supporter, enabling such large-scale attacks. Tehran has repeatedly threatened in the past with retaliatory attacks on US bases in the Middle East. As a result, the US started a few days ago with the evacuation of personnel and family members of US troops, which are not necessary on these bases. There are many possible targets: Between Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, the US has eight permanent bases and several mobile military bases, in which about 50,000 soldiers are deployed.

Indeed Iran has no interest in a military confrontation with the US, but whether Tehran will counterstrike, it depends on how and if the US administration distances itself from Israeli attacks. Foreign Minister Marco Rubio in a post swears that the US is in no way a participant in Israel's actions. He also warns that US targets should not be targeted in any way.

In the Middle East, nervousness is generally high. Countries in the region have harshly criticized Israel's attack — including Saudi Arabia, which until recently was a staunch opponent of Iran.

The Abraham Accord established during Donald Trump's first presidential term for rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world - has now been frozen. Rapprochement efforts suffered a setback during Israel's fighting in Gaza.

Saudi Arabia and Iran, meanwhile, after fierce hostilities for years, had begun to come closer with the mediation of China. Relations between the two countries had intensified, and the two countries even aimed at military cooperation, and a joint exercise was expected to be organized. The visit of Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman to Tehran also served as the latest sign of rapprochement. There, Mohammed bin Salman's brother also had a meeting with the religious leader.

Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region do not want to get involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran in any way, much less if the US is also involved in it. Iran against the background of a superior adversary can also follow the course of an asymmetrical war. Among such actions is the disruption of oil extraction and transportation. In 2019, drone strikes by Yemeni Houthi militias cut off half of Saudi oil extraction. Even in the years that followed, Saudi oil plants have consistently been the target of attacks from Yemen. Therefore, it is not surprising that oil prices have risen massively in the wave of Israeli attacks.

It is unclear whether Israel will achieve the officially announced goal of preventing the construction of the Iranian atomic bomb with the attack launched. So far, most experts doubt that the Iranian nuclear program can be destroyed militarily. The attacks may even have the opposite effect, to prompt Iran to construct the atomic bomb right now. But such action would lead to an atomic arms race in the Middle East. And no one can be interested in such a thing./DW