High Romanian turnout in elections that could deepen divisions in the EU

Romanians turned out en masse to vote in the second round of a controversial presidential election, a vote that followed months of unprecedented political chaos.

Turnout at noon on May 18 was significantly higher than during the first round, with voters outside Romania casting a larger number of votes than had been anticipated over the two days of voting.

Romanians are voting in a presidential runoff election, where they could choose between a far-right Eurosceptic and a centrist independent, and where the outcome could have an impact on both the country's weakened economy and unity within the European Union.

Far-right nationalist George Simion, 38, who opposes military aid to neighboring Ukraine and is critical of European Union leadership, led convincingly in the first round of the presidential election, causing the fall of a pro-Western coalition government.

Bucharest's centrist mayor, Nicusor Dan, 55, who has pledged to fight corruption, is strongly pro-European Union and NATO. He has said Romania's support for Ukraine is essential for its security in the face of the growing threat from Russia.

The president of an EU and NATO member state has considerable powers, including heading the defense council that decides on military aid. He also oversees foreign policy and has the right to veto EU votes that require unanimity. Romania is one of five EU states that does not recognize Kosovo's independence.

Whoever is elected will also have to propose a prime minister to negotiate a parliamentary majority to reduce Romania's budget deficit - the largest in the EU.

A poll on Friday predicted that Dan, for the first time since the first round, was slightly ahead of Simion in a close race that will depend on turnout and the large Romanian diaspora.

Some 2.06 million Romanians, or 11.5% of registered voters, had cast their ballots by 8:34 a.m., according to data, including overseas voting. Voting closes at 8 p.m., after which exit polls will be published, followed by preliminary results in the evening.

The president can only serve two five-year terms.

"Unlike Western countries that can more easily cope with mistakes, trust in Romania can be lost much more quickly and may ... take generations to recover," said Radu Burnete, director of the country's largest employers' group.

Political analysts have said that a victory for Simion, a supporter of US President Donald Trump, would risk isolating the country internationally, eroding private investment and destabilizing NATO's eastern flank.

The vote in Romania takes place nearly six months after the initial round was canceled due to allegations of Russian interference - denied by Moscow - in favor of far-right candidate Calin Georgescu, who was barred from running again.

Simion owes much of his success to popular anger against this decision, as well as frustration with the main parties who are blamed for the high cost of living, inequality and corruption.

He has said he would choose Georgescu, who supports nationalizations and an open stance towards Russia, as prime minister.

Simion voted alongside Georgescu, who has called him his "protege," on the outskirts of Bucharest, accompanied by bodyguards and surrounded by supporters.

"I voted against abuses and ... poverty," Simion said. "I voted against those who despise us all."

Dan voted in his small town in central Romania, Fagaras, hugged teachers from the high school where he studied and called on people to vote, saying that "Romania is choosing its future for more than five years, it is at a turning point."

"I voted for change that brings prosperity, not for discouraging investment in Romania. I voted for ... good cooperation with our European partners and not for isolation," he said.

Also on Sunday, Poles vote in the first round of Poland's presidential election, with the pro-European Union mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki expected to lead. 

A victory for Simion and/or Nawrocki would expand the group of Eurosceptic leaders, which already includes the prime ministers of Hungary and Slovakia, in a political shift in Central Europe that could deepen divisions in the EU.

“What (nationalists) want is a European Union that is as little integrated as possible,” said political analyst and historian Ion M. Ionita. “An EU where decisions are made only at the national level, but still benefiting from European money.”

Some analysts said online disinformation was widespread ahead of Sunday's vote.

“We are seeing misinformation spreading rapidly across social media platforms – through bots and strategic re-distributions that mimic authentic posts,” said Roxana Radu, an expert at the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford. REL