UN warns of 'Super El Niño' phenomenon: It could be among the strongest in history

The United Nations has warned the world about the possibility of a natural meteorological phenomenon called a “Super El Niño,” which could be among the strongest ever recorded. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the phenomenon, which increases global temperatures and intensifies rainfall, has an 80% chance of forming before September.

Although the phenomenon was expected, many scientists believe it could be extremely strong. It could even be a "record event", as Professor Adam Scaife, responsible for climate forecasts at the United Kingdom's Meteorological Service (Met Office), told the BBC.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the world should consider El Niño "as the urgent climate alarm that it represents."

Even if it doesn't reach the level of a "Super El Niño," the consequences could still be extreme, as the planet is already warmer due to climate change. Just think of 2024, when the El Niño that began in 2023 contributed to breaking global temperature records.

Climatologist Zeke Hausfather from the Berkeley Earth Group in the US explains to the BBC that, if the El Niño conditions of 1998 – then considered an exceptionally hot year – were repeated today, that year would appear relatively cool compared to the last two decades.

What is El Niño?

Explaining what this phenomenon is and why it also affects Italy, in April the scientific director of the Italian Climate Network, Serena Giacomin, described it to the newspaper Corriere della Sera in these words:

"El Niño disrupts global atmospheric circulation. It's a kind of giant thermodynamic machine and it's worrisome because it brings about a significant increase in temperatures," she said. 
Essentially, El Niño is an anomaly in atmospheric and oceanic circulation associated with specific temperature changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Instead of warm waters moving towards Asia, they are pushed eastwards, towards the western coasts of the Americas. Precipitation follows the warm air masses, bringing wetter periods and increased flooding along the Gulf Coast and the southeastern United States.

The reason scientists are warning of a potentially record-breaking El Niño is because of data collected by satellites, buoys and floating ocean devices. These instruments have detected unusually warm water masses hundreds of meters deep, with temperatures in some areas more than 6 degrees Celsius above average, moving eastward across the Pacific Ocean.

According to experts, heat accumulated in the depths of the ocean is often a precursor to the warming of surface waters and, consequently, rising air temperatures.

“We can predict that 2027 will be a very hot year,” Giacomin explains. “A very warm atmosphere means a lot of energy in the climate system and, consequently, much more extreme weather.”

Although scientists cannot determine with certainty what will happen and how long the phenomenon will last, the experience of past years shows that when El Niño has appeared, southern Europe has recorded a more extreme climate, with what experts call "climate shocks". This includes long periods of drought and water shortages, followed by particularly intense rainfall and strong atmospheric phenomena./CorrieredellaSera