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Scientists raise the alarm: Earth risks exceeding the 1.5°C warming limit!

Politiko 2025-06-19 19:37:44
Scientists raise the alarm: Earth risks exceeding the 1.5°C warming limit!
Illustrative photo

The Earth could pass the critical global warming limit of 1.5°C within just three years if carbon emissions continue at current levels, more than 60 of the world's leading climate scientists have warned .

This limit, set in the historic Paris Agreement in 2015 by around 200 countries, aimed to keep the increase in global temperatures to a maximum of 1.5°C above late 19th century levels, to avoid the most severe consequences of climate change.

However, record use of coal, oil and gas, as well as deforestation of forests that absorb carbon dioxide, have put the achievement of this international goal at risk. Climate change has significantly worsened extreme events, such as the 40°C heat wave in the United Kingdom in 2022, and has caused a rapid rise in sea levels, threatening millions of people living in coastal areas.

In early 2020, scientists estimated that humanity could still emit about 500 billion tons of carbon dioxide to have a 50% chance of keeping global warming below 1.5°C. But by early 2025, this “carbon budget” had shrunk to just 130 billion tons due to record emissions and improvements in scientific calculations.

If emissions continue at the current rate of about 40 billion tonnes per year, this budget will be exhausted in about three years, pushing the world towards the warming threshold. The year 2024 is expected to mark global average temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, although a 12-month period is not considered a formal breach of the Paris Agreement, as natural factors also play a role.

Current warming is occurring at a rate of about 0.27°C per decade, much faster than at any other time in geological history. After reaching the 1.5°C limit, long-term warming can only be slowed if advanced technologies are used to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, but scientists warn that this should not be seen as an easy solution.

Furthermore, the rate at which additional energy is accumulating in the Earth's climate system has increased significantly, causing global warming, rising air temperatures, melting ice caps, and rising sea levels. About 90% of this energy is absorbed by the oceans, which are expanding and exacerbating the risk of coastal flooding.

Overall, the study highlights the urgency of global action to reduce emissions and protect the planet from the catastrophic consequences of climate change.

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