REL analysis: Baltic states with more power in the EU, while enlargement remains uncertain

 After several delays and setbacks, including fewer women than before, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on September 17 presented her new European Commission team for the next five years.

Let's put it this way: The big winners are the Baltic states and Poland, which take strong positions; other central and eastern states, not so much. Let's see what will happen with the enlargement of the EU.

It is clear that the Baltic countries are close to Von der Leyen. Of course, we already knew that the former prime minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, is the EU's foreign policy chief. Latvian veteran Valdis Dombrovskis took on the heavyweight economy portfolio despite persistent rumors that he would be dealing with expansion in the coming years.

Former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius was chosen for the newly created defense portfolio. This role may be empty if there is no EU defense funding. Brussels has shown interest in boosting the continent's defense industry, especially with the ongoing war in Ukraine, but the question is whether member states are really interested in it. There are many national champions in this field, but few European ones, and it is doubtful whether this will change in the coming years. Finally, Piotr Serafim, the right-hand man of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, will have the budget in hand. So, so far, it's pretty impressive.

But then, it's clearly a Western trend on the block. Spain will be responsible for the EU's internal market, France for industrial strategy, Ireland for justice, Luxembourg for the lucrative agriculture portfolio and Italy for cohesion policy – ​​a major source of EU cash where money is transferred from the most developed regions. wealth to the poorest of the club. Austria, which is leaning more and more to the right, took on migration issues – a true sign of the times.

Of course, the Romanian candidate, Roxana Minzatu, is one of the six executive vice presidents. This is important, but its domain is "people, skills and preparations", a rather vague concept. Von der Leyen stressed that she will be responsible for education and social rights – issues that mainly fall within the competences of national governments, not Brussels.

The Bulgarian candidate, Ekaterina Zaharieva, will deal with research and innovation – another area in which the EU is quite shy, and Hungary's Oliver Varhelyi will deal with animal health and welfare, something that has become more important on the scene. European, especially after COVID, but which is still not very strong. Both are rumored to be at risk of being sacked, as the European Parliament will soon start hearing candidates and is likely to eliminate at least a few.

Slovakia took over trade in an era of increased protectionism, the Czech Republic has an "international partnership" that no one knows what it means, and Croatia is responsible for the Southern Neighborhood - in other words, the countries in North Africa that do not may be members of the EU, but that the bloc wants to reach an agreement to prevent immigration to the club.

What about expansion? This area affects many in the Western Balkans, as well as the candidate countries in the east such as Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. Enlargement was supposed to be one of the priorities of this composition of the European Commission. That went to Slovenia and Marta Kosi, the commission's only yet-to-be-confirmed candidate from its capital, as the opposition in Ljubljana postponed the issue as they are angry that the Slovenian front-runner, Tomaz Vesel, defected to Von der Leyen. as she sought more women on her team.

This is not a strong endorsement of enlargement as a policy, and I understand that Ukraine and Moldova were hoping for someone with a slightly higher profile and preferably from the friendlier Baltic states. It will also be responsible for the eastern neighborhood, which means Azerbaijan, Armenia and Belarus. The question is how much time will be left for this trio.

Coming from the former Yugoslavia, it seems clear that Marta Kos will focus on the Western Balkans.

And in a way, this makes perfect sense as many of the countries there are currently more advanced than Ukraine and Moldova on their way to the EU and they have felt a bit sidelined by Brussels in recent years. She is likely to be less controversial than the current Hungarian enlargement commissioner, Oliver Varhelyi, who has clearly put a very Hungarian stamp on the role. But, again, it seems that expansion is not at the top of the agenda in Brussels for the coming years./ REL