There will be early elections in Germany, what do the polls predict?

According to the ARD-Deutschlandtrend survey, Germans are dissatisfied with the current government of the SPD, FDP and Green parties, which has been in power since December 8, 2021. Currently, around 85 percent of Germans are dissatisfied with the government's performance, while only 14 percent positively evaluate the work of this coalition.

ARD-Deutschlandtrend has been conducting such polls on the federal government's performance since 1997. The current poll is the worst for the government since June 2010 when only 12 percent trusted the CDU/CSU and FDP government. But even during the SPD and Green governments, in 2003 and 2004, there was very little voter satisfaction with the government (11 and 13 percent).

Gerhard Schröder's government ended its term in early elections in 2005, when the CDU/CSU entered into a coalition with the SPD and Angela Merkel came to power. While now at the end of October 2024, the majority of Germans are of the opinion that Germany should go to early elections, because 54 percent support early elections. Only 41 percent of respondents think the coalition will survive until regular elections at the end of September 2025.

Among supporters of the ruling SPD and Green parties, majorities of 77 and 76 percent are in favor of remaining in the coalition until the election. On the other hand, almost all AfD supporters (93 percent) hope that the government will fall and there will be early elections. Among supporters of the Union (CDU/CSU), which has been leading the polls for months, 69 percent want an early end to the government, while 75 percent of respondents in the Sara Wagenknecht Alliance are in favor.

If there were elections on Sunday
If the federal parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, the conservative Union CDU and CSU would receive 34 percent of the vote. The SPD would win 16 percent, the Greens 11 percent, while the FDP would remain out of parliament, because it would only win four percent. The AfD would get 17 percent and Sara Wagenknecht's Alliance six percent. Other parties would receive a total of 12 percent.

When it comes to personal ratings, Chancellor Olaf Scholz currently has the support of only 19 percent of voters. In comparison, Gerhard Schröder's lowest approval rating has been 24 percent, while Angela Merkel has never had support lower than 40 percent during her terms.

Not much is expected from the government
The CDU/CSU currently has the most support since the 2021 elections. However, only 23 percent of Germans believe that a potential CDU/CSU government would handle the challenges better than the current government. While 16 percent think it would be even worse. About 53 percent of the respondents think that it will be the same.

In the field of economic and fiscal policy, about 83 percent of respondents are dissatisfied with the work of the coalition. Dissatisfaction is directed especially at the parties that lead the respective ministries: FDP and the Greens.

Three quarters of Germans (73 percent) are worried about the current economic situation. In addition, 44 percent worry that they will not be able to maintain their standard of living, while 18 percent of employees fear that they may lose their jobs.

When it comes to state subsidies for companies investing in Germany, 67 percent consider this the right way to go. 54 percent support lower taxes for companies.

The majority of Germans prefer Kamala Harris
Before the presidential election on November 5 in the USA, 74 percent of Germans think that Kamala Harris looks more convincing than Donald Trump, who is supported by only 11 percent of respondents.

Supporters of the Greens (92 percent), CDU/CSU and SPD (90 percent each) overwhelmingly support Harris. Among supporters of the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance, a majority (61 percent) also support Harris. While 14 percent are Trump supporters, but 25 percent are not satisfied with either candidate. Among AfD supporters, 41 percent support Trump, 26 percent prefer Harris, while 28 percent favor neither candidate.

A majority of Germans believe that President Kamala Harris would have a positive impact on US-German relations (82 percent), the global fight against climate change (78 percent), security in Europe (77 percent) and the German economy (75 percent). They also believe that as president she would have a positive impact on the situation in Ukraine (70 percent) and the Middle East (66 percent). Only 17 percent believe that Donald Trump could be a better choice in these areas.

When it comes to recognizing the results of the election, 80 percent of Germans believe Trump would not recognize Harris' victory, while 14 percent believe Harris would not recognize Trump's victory.

These are the results of the ARD-Deutschlandtrend survey, conducted with 1,333 voters from October 28 to 30, 2024./ DW /